What happened last time? › Events

What happens after a bank failure?

It has happened 128 times since 1934. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 86 of 125 times, with a median move of +9.4%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +10.0%, up 72% of the time.

a bank failure in the last 30 days. Not true on 2026-09-25.

What came next

Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.

Every time it happened

• 2026-07-10 · true for 26 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
• 2026-05-01 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
• 2026-01-30 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
• 2025-06-27 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +19.1%
• 2025-01-17 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.7%
• 2024-10-18 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +13.6%
• 2024-04-26 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +8.3%
• 2023-11-03 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +31.4%
• 2023-07-28 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +19.1%
• 2023-03-10 · true for 42 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +32.7%
• 2020-10-16 · true for 26 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +28.3%
• 2020-02-14 · true for 40 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.4%
• 2019-10-25 · true for 25 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +14.7%
• 2019-05-31 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.6%
• 2017-12-15 · true for 19 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -2.8%
• 2017-10-13 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +8.4%
• 2017-01-13 · true for 90 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +22.5%
• 2016-08-19 · true for 41 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.1%
• 2016-03-11 · true for 45 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.3%
• 2015-10-02 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.1%
• 2015-07-10 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +2.6%
• 2015-05-08 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -2.8%
• 2014-10-17 · true for 102 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.8%
• 2008-05-09 · true for 1503 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -33.1%
• 2008-01-25 · true for 40 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -37.5%
• 2007-09-28 · true for 26 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -20.5%
• 2007-02-02 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -3.7%
• 2004-06-25 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +5.0%
• 2004-02-17 · true for 43 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +4.6%
• 2003-11-14 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.7%
• 2003-05-09 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.7%
• 2002-09-30 · true for 82 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +22.2%
• 2002-06-26 · true for 22 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +1.3%
• 2002-01-11 · true for 73 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -19.0%
• 2001-07-27 · true for 38 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -29.3%
• 2001-05-03 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -14.0%
• 2000-12-14 · true for 40 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -16.2%
• 2000-09-29 · true for 31 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -27.5%
• 2000-06-02 · true for 42 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -14.7%
• 1999-11-22 · true for 74 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -5.2%
• 1999-07-09 · true for 48 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +5.4%
• 1999-03-26 · true for 40 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +19.1%
• 1998-07-23 · true for 32 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +19.1%
• 1998-04-09 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +21.4%
• 1997-11-21 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +20.8%
• 1996-05-31 · true for 74 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +26.8%
• 1996-03-08 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +27.1%
• 1995-07-28 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +13.0%
• 1994-04-04 · true for 256 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.1%
• 1980-04-28 · true for 3416 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +27.2%
• 1980-01-11 · true for 55 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +21.4%
• 1979-09-21 · true for 36 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.0%
• 1979-06-14 · true for 41 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +13.3%
• 1978-12-18 · true for 47 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.9%
• 1978-07-21 · true for 43 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +4.2%
• 1978-01-19 · true for 68 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.7%
• 1977-07-29 · true for 45 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +1.2%
• 1977-03-10 · true for 53 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -11.7%
• 1976-09-14 · true for 75 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -7.1%
• 1976-05-21 · true for 46 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -1.8%

The 60 most recent of 128.

• 128 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
• Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
• Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
• How these numbers are made.

More about events

• What happens after the Fed cuts rates?
• What happens after the Fed raises rates?
• What happens when the Fed cuts rates with no recession announced?
• What happens when the Fed cuts rates during a recession?
• What happens when the Fed has not raised rates for a year?
• What happens to markets after a war or attack?
• What happens after a market crash?
• What happens during a government shutdown?