What happened last time? › Events
What happens during a government shutdown?
It has happened 6 times since 1995. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 4 of 5 times, with a median move of +19.6%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +12.2%, up 78% of the time.
during a government shutdown. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +2.8% 67% up · n 6 · normal +1.3% | +19.6% 80% up · n 5 · normal +12.2% | +91.0% 100% up · n 5 · normal +31.0% |
| Gold | +2.0% 83% up · n 6 · normal +0.3% | -3.7% 20% up · n 5 · normal +7.6% | +2.2% 60% up · n 5 · normal +32.2% |
| Oil | -2.2% 33% up · n 6 · normal +1.1% | +30.4% 60% up · n 5 · normal +5.5% | -23.7% 20% up · n 5 · normal +20.1% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.05 pts 33% up · n 6 · normal -0.01 pts | +0.08 pts 60% up · n 5 · normal -0.12 pts | -1.24 pts 0% up · n 5 · normal -0.33 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | -0.04 pts 40% up · n 5 · normal -0.00 pts | +0.18 pts 60% up · n 5 · normal +0.04 pts | -0.75 pts 20% up · n 5 · normal -0.07 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | +0.05 pts 50% up · n 4 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.20 pts 0% up · n 5 · normal -0.30 pts | -0.90 pts 40% up · n 5 · normal -0.70 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2025-10-01 · true for 31 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 2018-12-24 · true for 22 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +37.1%
- 2018-01-22 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: -7.1%
- 2013-10-01 · true for 13 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +14.8%
- 1995-12-18 · true for 13 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +19.6%
- 1995-11-14 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +24.1%
- 6 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Few episodes: read the ranges and the interval, not just the median.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
More about events
- What happens after the Fed cuts rates?
- What happens after the Fed raises rates?
- What happens when the Fed cuts rates with no recession announced?
- What happens when the Fed cuts rates during a recession?
- What happens when the Fed has not raised rates for a year?
- What happens after a bank failure?
- What happens to markets after a war or attack?
- What happens after a market crash?