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What happens after the Fed raises rates?

It has happened 66 times since 1946. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 43 of 65 times, with a median move of +5.9%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +10.2%, up 74% of the time.

a Fed rate hike in the last 30 days. This is true today (2026-09-25).

What came next

Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.

Every time it happened

• 2026-09-17 · true for 7 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
• 2023-07-27 · true for 22 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +20.3%
• 2022-03-17 · true for 210 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -11.2%
• 2018-12-20 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +30.6%
• 2018-09-27 · true for 22 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +1.6%
• 2018-06-14 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +3.8%
• 2018-03-22 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +5.9%
• 2017-12-14 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -2.0%
• 2017-06-15 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +14.3%
• 2017-03-16 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.6%
• 2016-12-14 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.7%
• 2015-12-16 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +9.1%
• 2004-06-30 · true for 358 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +4.4%
• 2000-02-02 · true for 64 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -2.5%
• 1999-11-16 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -2.1%
• 1999-06-30 · true for 42 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +5.1%
• 1997-03-25 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +39.6%
• 1995-02-01 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +35.7%
• 1994-11-15 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +27.7%
• 1994-08-16 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +20.4%
• 1994-02-04 · true for 79 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +1.9%
• 1989-05-17 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.7%
• 1988-11-17 · true for 84 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +29.1%
• 1988-03-30 · true for 106 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +13.3%
• 1987-08-27 · true for 41 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -21.6%
• 1987-04-30 · true for 36 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -9.4%
• 1987-01-05 · true for 22 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +2.6%
• 1986-04-02 · true for 52 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +24.6%
• 1985-07-25 · true for 50 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +25.1%
• 1985-01-24 · true for 57 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.8%
• 1984-07-05 · true for 46 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +26.0%
• 1984-03-29 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +13.3%
• 1983-03-31 · true for 96 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +4.1%
• 1981-05-05 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -9.7%
• 1980-09-26 · true for 53 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -10.7%
• 1980-02-15 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.0%
• 1979-07-20 · true for 75 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +19.9%
• 1978-05-11 · true for 112 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +1.4%
• 1978-01-09 · true for 22 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +9.6%
• 1977-08-30 · true for 42 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.4%
• 1974-04-25 · true for 22 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -3.3%
• 1973-05-04 · true for 82 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -17.8%
• 1973-01-15 · true for 43 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -20.4%
• 1971-07-16 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.8%
• 1969-04-07 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -11.4%
• 1968-12-19 · true for 19 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -14.6%
• 1968-03-22 · true for 39 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.7%
• 1967-11-20 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.8%
• 1965-12-06 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -10.8%
• 1964-11-24 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.2%
• 1963-07-17 · true for 22 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +21.3%
• 1959-09-11 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -2.3%
• 1959-05-29 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -5.0%
• 1959-03-06 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -2.9%
• 1958-09-12 · true for 41 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +18.3%
• 1957-08-23 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.2%
• 1956-08-24 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -7.2%
• 1956-04-13 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -6.2%
• 1955-11-18 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +0.4%
• 1955-08-05 · true for 42 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.6%

The 60 most recent of 66.

• 66 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
• Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
• Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.

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