What happened last time? › Events
What happens to markets after a war or attack?
It has happened 10 times since 1917. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 7 of 9 times, with a median move of +10.2%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +9.4%, up 69% of the time.
a war or attack in the last 30 days. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +1.1% 78% up · n 9 · normal +1.1% | +10.2% 78% up · n 9 · normal +9.4% | +36.9% 100% up · n 8 · normal +25.7% |
| Gold | 0.0% 43% up · n 7 · normal 0.0% | 0.0% 43% up · n 7 · normal +2.9% | +23.6% 83% up · n 6 · normal +10.4% |
| Oil | 0.0% 43% up · n 7 · normal 0.0% | -10.0% 29% up · n 7 · normal 0.0% | -18.5% 33% up · n 6 · normal +8.9% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.03 pts 43% up · n 7 · normal +0.01 pts | -0.35 pts 29% up · n 7 · normal +0.09 pts | +0.06 pts 50% up · n 6 · normal +0.06 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | +0.03 pts 67% up · n 9 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.52 pts 40% up · n 10 · normal -0.01 pts | -0.07 pts 44% up · n 9 · normal -0.13 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | +0.05 pts 50% up · n 8 · normal 0.00 pts | +0.05 pts 50% up · n 8 · normal -0.20 pts | 0.00 pts 43% up · n 7 · normal -0.40 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2023-10-09 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +32.6%
- 2022-02-24 · true for 22 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -7.4%
- 2003-03-20 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +26.7%
- 2001-09-17 · true for 36 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -15.9%
- 1991-01-17 · true for 22 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +27.7%
- 1990-08-02 · true for 22 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.2%
- 1964-08-07 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +5.1%
- 1950-06-26 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.6%
- 1941-12-08 · true for 23 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +4.3%
- 1917-04-07 · true for 25 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 10 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
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