What happened last time? › Events
What happens when the Fed has not raised rates for a year?
It has happened 20 times since 1947. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 16 of 20 times, with a median move of +16.1%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +10.5%, up 75% of the time.
no Fed rate hike in the last 365 days. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +0.9% 65% up · n 20 · normal +1.1% | +16.1% 80% up · n 20 · normal +10.5% | +22.3% 84% up · n 19 · normal +28.9% |
| Gold | 0.0% 40% up · n 15 · normal 0.0% | 0.0% 47% up · n 15 · normal +2.9% | +7.4% 57% up · n 14 · normal +10.4% |
| Oil | 0.0% 20% up · n 15 · normal 0.0% | 0.0% 40% up · n 15 · normal 0.0% | +7.2% 57% up · n 14 · normal +8.9% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | 0.00 pts 41% up · n 17 · normal +0.01 pts | -0.08 pts 47% up · n 17 · normal +0.09 pts | +0.11 pts 50% up · n 16 · normal +0.06 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | -0.05 pts 22% up · n 18 · normal -0.00 pts | -0.59 pts 40% up · n 20 · normal -0.02 pts | -0.67 pts 42% up · n 19 · normal -0.04 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | 0.00 pts 44% up · n 18 · normal 0.00 pts | +0.10 pts 53% up · n 19 · normal -0.20 pts | -0.35 pts 39% up · n 18 · normal -0.40 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2024-07-26 · true for 537 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.0%
- 2019-12-20 · true for 563 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.2%
- 2007-06-29 · true for 2132 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -15.0%
- 2001-05-16 · true for 782 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -14.5%
- 1998-03-25 · true for 319 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.1%
- 1996-02-01 · true for 289 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +23.1%
- 1990-05-17 · true for 942 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +5.1%
- 1982-05-05 · true for 230 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +39.6%
- 1975-04-25 · true for 593 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +18.1%
- 1972-07-17 · true for 124 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -0.2%
- 1970-04-06 · true for 325 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +14.4%
- 1966-12-06 · true for 241 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +18.3%
- 1965-11-24 · true for 7 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -12.8%
- 1964-07-16 · true for 91 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +2.5%
- 1960-09-12 · true for 715 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +22.0%
- 1958-08-25 · true for 13 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +23.6%
- 1954-01-18 · true for 314 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +36.8%
- 1951-08-21 · true for 383 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +9.3%
- 1949-08-15 · true for 287 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +20.1%
- 1947-04-25 · true for 196 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +9.7%
- 20 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
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