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What happens after the Fed cuts rates?
It has happened 48 times since 1937. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 40 of 48 times, with a median move of +14.8%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +9.9%, up 72% of the time.
a Fed rate cut in the last 30 days. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +0.5% 60% up · n 48 · normal +1.1% | +14.8% 83% up · n 48 · normal +9.9% | +30.0% 87% up · n 46 · normal +27.1% |
| Gold | +0.5% 50% up · n 42 · normal 0.0% | +2.7% 57% up · n 42 · normal +2.9% | +7.0% 60% up · n 40 · normal +10.4% |
| Oil | 0.0% 48% up · n 42 · normal 0.0% | 0.0% 45% up · n 42 · normal 0.0% | -2.3% 48% up · n 40 · normal +8.9% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.09 pts 35% up · n 46 · normal +0.01 pts | +0.06 pts 54% up · n 46 · normal +0.09 pts | -0.13 pts 48% up · n 44 · normal +0.06 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | -0.02 pts 39% up · n 44 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.68 pts 35% up · n 48 · normal -0.01 pts | -0.34 pts 46% up · n 46 · normal +0.02 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | +0.10 pts 53% up · n 40 · normal 0.00 pts | 0.00 pts 46% up · n 46 · normal -0.20 pts | -0.45 pts 41% up · n 44 · normal -0.40 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2025-09-18 · true for 63 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.4%
- 2024-09-19 · true for 61 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.6%
- 2020-03-04 · true for 29 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +20.4%
- 2019-08-01 · true for 65 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.8%
- 2008-10-08 · true for 56 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +8.2%
- 2007-09-18 · true for 132 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -23.9%
- 2003-06-25 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.0%
- 2002-11-06 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +14.5%
- 2001-01-03 · true for 209 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -13.5%
- 1998-09-29 · true for 55 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +20.9%
- 1995-12-19 · true for 41 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +19.5%
- 1995-07-06 · true for 22 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +18.7%
- 1992-09-04 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.6%
- 1992-07-02 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +8.3%
- 1992-04-09 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.3%
- 1991-08-06 · true for 96 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +8.1%
- 1990-10-29 · true for 127 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +29.7%
- 1990-07-13 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +3.5%
- 1989-10-19 · true for 53 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -10.0%
- 1989-06-06 · true for 57 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.6%
- 1988-01-28 · true for 31 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.0%
- 1987-11-04 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.1%
- 1987-07-02 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -11.1%
- 1986-07-11 · true for 42 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +27.3%
- 1986-03-07 · true for 42 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +28.9%
- 1985-12-18 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.6%
- 1985-04-25 · true for 60 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +32.1%
- 1984-09-20 · true for 86 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +8.7%
- 1983-08-17 · true for 42 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -0.9%
- 1982-07-20 · true for 111 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +51.8%
- 1981-11-02 · true for 40 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.7%
- 1980-05-29 · true for 53 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +20.2%
- 1976-11-22 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -6.3%
- 1976-01-16 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.2%
- 1975-05-16 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.1%
- 1974-12-09 · true for 80 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +33.1%
- 1971-11-19 · true for 39 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +26.1%
- 1970-11-13 · true for 83 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.5%
- 1968-08-30 · true for 17 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -3.4%
- 1967-04-07 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +4.4%
- 1960-08-12 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +20.1%
- 1960-06-10 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.0%
- 1958-01-24 · true for 62 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +34.3%
- 1957-11-15 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +31.5%
- 1954-04-19 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +37.7%
- 1954-02-05 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +40.5%
- 1942-10-30 · true for 23 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +27.2%
- 1937-08-27 · true for 25 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -21.3%
- 48 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
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