What happened last time? › Events
What happens after a federal disaster declaration?
It has happened 56 times since 1953. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 43 of 56 times, with a median move of +10.9%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +10.6%, up 74% of the time.
a federal disaster declaration in the last 30 days. This is true today (2026-09-25).
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +1.6% 73% up · n 56 · normal +1.1% | +10.9% 77% up · n 56 · normal +10.6% | +19.0% 88% up · n 56 · normal +27.5% |
| Gold | 0.0% 38% up · n 40 · normal 0.0% | 0.0% 46% up · n 41 · normal +2.9% | 0.0% 49% up · n 41 · normal +10.4% |
| Oil | 0.0% 23% up · n 40 · normal 0.0% | 0.0% 44% up · n 41 · normal 0.0% | +15.9% 51% up · n 41 · normal +8.9% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | +0.00 pts 50% up · n 56 · normal +0.01 pts | +0.20 pts 63% up · n 56 · normal +0.09 pts | +0.34 pts 68% up · n 56 · normal +0.06 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | 0.00 pts 43% up · n 53 · normal -0.00 pts | +0.07 pts 50% up · n 56 · normal +0.03 pts | +0.68 pts 64% up · n 56 · normal +0.01 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | 0.00 pts 43% up · n 54 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.15 pts 32% up · n 56 · normal -0.20 pts | -0.25 pts 46% up · n 56 · normal -0.40 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2009-12-03 · true for 4017 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.3%
- 2005-06-23 · true for 1082 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +3.6%
- 2005-01-21 · true for 81 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +8.0%
- 1999-01-15 · true for 1416 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.8%
- 1997-06-13 · true for 367 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +23.0%
- 1995-03-13 · true for 524 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +30.0%
- 1988-09-29 · true for 1490 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +28.1%
- 1988-07-28 · true for 22 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +28.6%
- 1986-02-18 · true for 489 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +28.3%
- 1985-05-31 · true for 138 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +30.5%
- 1985-03-18 · true for 29 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +33.3%
- 1983-04-18 · true for 437 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -0.5%
- 1982-11-29 · true for 72 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +25.1%
- 1982-03-22 · true for 154 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +33.6%
- 1981-03-17 · true for 212 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -18.5%
- 1978-02-10 · true for 641 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +8.6%
- 1977-01-26 · true for 182 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -13.4%
- 1976-03-19 · true for 165 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +1.3%
- 1975-12-08 · true for 28 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +18.9%
- 1975-01-30 · true for 192 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +32.3%
- 1974-09-23 · true for 66 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +22.4%
- 1973-02-08 · true for 364 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -18.4%
- 1972-01-11 · true for 239 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.2%
- 1971-02-09 · true for 155 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +8.2%
- 1969-04-18 · true for 345 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -15.4%
- 1969-01-27 · true for 33 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -14.4%
- 1968-05-03 · true for 114 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +5.4%
- 1968-02-13 · true for 18 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.3%
- 1967-07-18 · true for 93 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +8.8%
- 1967-03-13 · true for 52 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +2.0%
- 1967-01-03 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +19.0%
- 1965-12-07 · true for 191 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -10.6%
- 1965-04-12 · true for 136 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +4.0%
- 1964-03-17 · true for 199 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +9.7%
- 1963-11-27 · true for 35 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +18.3%
- 1963-07-05 · true for 77 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.6%
- 1962-07-27 · true for 179 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +19.8%
- 1962-02-14 · true for 63 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -5.8%
- 1961-11-16 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -16.0%
- 1961-02-27 · true for 131 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.4%
- 1960-03-23 · true for 114 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.8%
- 1960-01-21 · true for 22 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +4.8%
- 1959-11-09 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -4.2%
- 1959-07-08 · true for 42 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -4.6%
- 1959-01-23 · true for 25 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +2.5%
- 1958-10-01 · true for 43 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +13.9%
- 1958-04-07 · true for 75 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +36.7%
- 1957-09-05 · true for 22 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.0%
- 1956-12-31 · true for 128 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -14.3%
- 1956-02-27 · true for 167 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -4.0%
- 1955-12-22 · true for 25 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +2.1%
- 1955-04-01 · true for 85 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +31.2%
- 1954-06-23 · true for 118 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +39.9%
- 1954-02-05 · true for 42 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +40.5%
- 1953-10-22 · true for 43 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +32.2%
- 1953-05-04 · true for 65 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +13.1%
- 56 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
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