What happened last time? › Volatility
What happens when financial conditions are tight (Chicago Fed NFCI above 0)?
It has happened 12 times since 1971. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 8 of 12 times, with a median move of +12.9%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +11.1%, up 76% of the time.
Chicago Fed financial conditions above 0. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +3.6% 83% up · n 12 · normal +1.1% | +12.9% 67% up · n 12 · normal +11.1% | +19.9% 75% up · n 12 · normal +31.2% |
| Gold | +2.1% 58% up · n 12 · normal +0.2% | +4.2% 67% up · n 12 · normal +6.2% | +29.9% 67% up · n 12 · normal +14.2% |
| Oil | +3.7% 50% up · n 12 · normal 0.0% | +26.6% 58% up · n 12 · normal +4.0% | +14.5% 58% up · n 12 · normal +16.2% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | +0.09 pts 67% up · n 12 · normal -0.01 pts | -0.23 pts 42% up · n 12 · normal -0.02 pts | +0.17 pts 58% up · n 12 · normal -0.28 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | +0.06 pts 50% up · n 12 · normal -0.01 pts | +0.42 pts 58% up · n 12 · normal +0.01 pts | +0.13 pts 50% up · n 12 · normal -0.25 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | 0.00 pts 25% up · n 12 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.35 pts 42% up · n 12 · normal -0.30 pts | +0.20 pts 58% up · n 12 · normal -0.70 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2020-03-18 · true for 39 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +63.3%
- 2007-08-22 · true for 561 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -12.7%
- 2000-05-24 · true for 28 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -7.6%
- 1998-10-14 · true for 15 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +27.6%
- 1990-08-15 · true for 145 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +14.5%
- 1987-04-15 · true for 779 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -8.7%
- 1984-04-11 · true for 156 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.3%
- 1983-11-02 · true for 52 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +1.6%
- 1978-04-05 · true for 1270 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.2%
- 1975-09-24 · true for 59 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +24.7%
- 1973-01-24 · true for 590 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -17.1%
- 1971-01-13 · true for 428 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.3%
- 12 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.