What happened last time? › Volatility
What happens when the VIX is below 12?
It has happened 27 times since 1990. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 24 of 27 times, with a median move of +8.9%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +11.8%, up 81% of the time.
VIX below 12. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +1.1% 63% up · n 27 · normal +1.2% | +8.9% 89% up · n 27 · normal +11.8% | +30.1% 88% up · n 26 · normal +33.0% |
| Gold | +0.3% 56% up · n 27 · normal +0.2% | +8.1% 74% up · n 27 · normal +5.1% | +16.2% 73% up · n 26 · normal +16.7% |
| Oil | +2.0% 56% up · n 27 · normal +0.8% | +2.3% 63% up · n 27 · normal +3.8% | +8.2% 65% up · n 26 · normal +12.4% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.03 pts 33% up · n 27 · normal -0.02 pts | +0.01 pts 52% up · n 27 · normal -0.20 pts | -0.54 pts 31% up · n 26 · normal -0.42 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | 0.00 pts 48% up · n 23 · normal -0.00 pts | -0.07 pts 44% up · n 27 · normal -0.02 pts | +0.25 pts 62% up · n 26 · normal -0.31 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | 0.00 pts 27% up · n 22 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.50 pts 11% up · n 27 · normal -0.30 pts | -1.00 pts 27% up · n 26 · normal -0.90 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2024-05-17 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.4%
- 2019-11-25 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.0%
- 2018-08-03 · true for 10 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +3.2%
- 2018-06-06 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +2.6%
- 2016-12-06 · true for 233 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +18.9%
- 2016-07-19 · true for 13 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +14.3%
- 2015-07-17 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +1.7%
- 2014-12-05 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +0.8%
- 2014-05-21 · true for 39 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.9%
- 2013-08-02 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.6%
- 2013-03-11 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +20.0%
- 2007-04-16 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: -9.1%
- 2006-08-18 · true for 105 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.0%
- 2005-11-10 · true for 82 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.2%
- 2005-09-09 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +4.6%
- 2005-06-02 · true for 32 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.0%
- 2005-04-11 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +8.9%
- 2005-02-02 · true for 15 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +6.5%
- 2004-12-17 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +6.1%
- 1995-11-21 · true for 19 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +23.9%
- 1995-08-31 · true for 11 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.0%
- 1994-12-23 · true for 68 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +33.1%
- 1994-06-13 · true for 33 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.8%
- 1993-12-13 · true for 36 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -3.3%
- 1993-06-15 · true for 56 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +3.2%
- 1993-04-12 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -0.2%
- 1992-12-04 · true for 14 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.6%
- 27 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
More about volatility
- What happens when the VIX is above 30?
- What happens when the VIX is above 40?
- What happens when the VIX is above 50?
- What happens after the VIX doubles in a month?
- What happens when financial stress is high (St. Louis Fed index above 1)?
- What happens when financial conditions are tight (Chicago Fed NFCI above 0)?