What happened last time? › Volatility
What happens when the VIX is above 40?
It has happened 13 times since 1990. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 11 of 13 times, with a median move of +25.2%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +11.8%, up 81% of the time.
VIX above 40. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +6.1% 77% up · n 13 · normal +1.2% | +25.2% 85% up · n 13 · normal +11.8% | +44.4% 100% up · n 12 · normal +33.0% |
| Gold | -2.1% 46% up · n 13 · normal +0.2% | +9.5% 77% up · n 13 · normal +5.1% | +14.4% 75% up · n 12 · normal +16.7% |
| Oil | +8.6% 62% up · n 13 · normal +0.8% | +24.4% 85% up · n 13 · normal +3.8% | +74.7% 92% up · n 12 · normal +12.4% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.01 pts 46% up · n 13 · normal -0.02 pts | +0.05 pts 54% up · n 13 · normal -0.20 pts | +0.25 pts 58% up · n 12 · normal -0.42 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | -0.07 pts 33% up · n 12 · normal -0.00 pts | +0.36 pts 54% up · n 13 · normal -0.02 pts | +1.25 pts 58% up · n 12 · normal -0.31 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | 0.00 pts 0% up · n 13 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.20 pts 46% up · n 13 · normal -0.30 pts | -1.15 pts 17% up · n 12 · normal -0.90 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2025-04-04 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +29.7%
- 2020-10-28 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +40.5%
- 2020-06-11 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +41.5%
- 2020-02-28 · true for 33 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +29.0%
- 2015-08-24 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +15.5%
- 2011-09-22 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +29.3%
- 2011-08-08 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +25.2%
- 2010-05-07 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +20.6%
- 2008-09-29 · true for 124 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -4.1%
- 2002-09-19 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +22.9%
- 2002-07-22 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +20.5%
- 2001-09-17 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -15.9%
- 1998-08-31 · true for 15 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +37.9%
- 13 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
More about volatility
- What happens when the VIX is above 30?
- What happens when the VIX is above 50?
- What happens when the VIX is below 12?
- What happens after the VIX doubles in a month?
- What happens when financial stress is high (St. Louis Fed index above 1)?
- What happens when financial conditions are tight (Chicago Fed NFCI above 0)?