What happened last time? › Volatility
What happens when financial stress is high (St. Louis Fed index above 1)?
It has happened 13 times since 1994. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 9 of 13 times, with a median move of +22.1%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +12.8%, up 79% of the time.
St. Louis Fed financial stress above 1. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +6.9% 85% up · n 13 · normal +1.3% | +22.1% 69% up · n 13 · normal +12.8% | +44.1% 77% up · n 13 · normal +32.8% |
| Gold | +1.0% 62% up · n 13 · normal +0.3% | +9.2% 77% up · n 13 · normal +6.4% | +25.5% 69% up · n 13 · normal +26.2% |
| Oil | +6.8% 77% up · n 13 · normal +1.2% | +16.8% 77% up · n 13 · normal +6.2% | +30.8% 85% up · n 13 · normal +17.5% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | +0.01 pts 62% up · n 13 · normal -0.01 pts | -0.21 pts 38% up · n 13 · normal -0.13 pts | -0.01 pts 46% up · n 13 · normal -0.39 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | -0.13 pts 31% up · n 13 · normal -0.00 pts | -0.66 pts 46% up · n 13 · normal +0.04 pts | -1.17 pts 31% up · n 13 · normal -0.14 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | 0.00 pts 23% up · n 13 · normal 0.00 pts | +0.30 pts 54% up · n 13 · normal -0.30 pts | +0.10 pts 54% up · n 13 · normal -0.80 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2023-03-24 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +31.8%
- 2020-03-13 · true for 44 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +45.5%
- 2016-02-19 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +22.6%
- 2011-11-25 · true for 10 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +21.6%
- 2011-09-30 · true for 15 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +27.3%
- 2011-08-19 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +26.2%
- 2010-06-04 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +22.1%
- 2007-11-16 · true for 408 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -40.1%
- 2007-08-24 · true for 24 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -12.7%
- 2002-07-26 · true for 69 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.1%
- 2001-09-21 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -12.5%
- 2001-03-30 · true for 9 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -1.1%
- 1998-09-11 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +34.0%
- 13 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.