What happened last time? › Volatility
What happens when the VIX is above 50?
It has happened 4 times since 1990. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 3 of 4 times, with a median move of +38.6%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +11.8%, up 81% of the time.
VIX above 50. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +4.8% 75% up · n 4 · normal +1.2% | +38.6% 75% up · n 4 · normal +11.8% | +42.7% 100% up · n 3 · normal +33.0% |
| Gold | -3.7% 25% up · n 4 · normal +0.2% | +16.0% 100% up · n 4 · normal +5.1% | +79.4% 100% up · n 3 · normal +16.7% |
| Oil | -8.8% 50% up · n 4 · normal +0.8% | +83.2% 75% up · n 4 · normal +3.8% | +143.5% 67% up · n 3 · normal +12.4% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | +0.17 pts 100% up · n 4 · normal -0.02 pts | +0.47 pts 75% up · n 4 · normal -0.20 pts | -0.79 pts 33% up · n 3 · normal -0.42 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | -0.29 pts 25% up · n 4 · normal -0.00 pts | -0.75 pts 25% up · n 4 · normal -0.02 pts | +2.90 pts 67% up · n 3 · normal -0.31 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | +0.50 pts 67% up · n 3 · normal 0.00 pts | +2.40 pts 100% up · n 4 · normal -0.30 pts | +0.70 pts 67% up · n 3 · normal -0.90 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2025-04-08 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +36.1%
- 2020-03-09 · true for 18 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +41.1%
- 2009-02-23 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +47.3%
- 2008-10-06 · true for 52 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -0.2%
- 4 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Few episodes: read the ranges and the interval, not just the median.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
More about volatility
- What happens when the VIX is above 30?
- What happens when the VIX is above 40?
- What happens when the VIX is below 12?
- What happens after the VIX doubles in a month?
- What happens when financial stress is high (St. Louis Fed index above 1)?
- What happens when financial conditions are tight (Chicago Fed NFCI above 0)?