What happened last time? › Volatility
What happens when the VIX is above 30?
It has happened 35 times since 1990. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 21 of 34 times, with a median move of +15.4%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +11.8%, up 81% of the time.
VIX above 30. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +2.7% 63% up · n 35 · normal +1.2% | +15.4% 62% up · n 34 · normal +11.8% | +31.5% 75% up · n 32 · normal +33.0% |
| Gold | -1.2% 46% up · n 35 · normal +0.2% | +2.1% 56% up · n 34 · normal +5.1% | +34.5% 78% up · n 32 · normal +16.7% |
| Oil | +1.9% 60% up · n 35 · normal +0.8% | +5.4% 53% up · n 34 · normal +3.8% | +18.1% 66% up · n 32 · normal +12.4% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | +0.05 pts 51% up · n 35 · normal -0.02 pts | -0.14 pts 41% up · n 34 · normal -0.20 pts | -0.36 pts 38% up · n 32 · normal -0.42 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | -0.02 pts 44% up · n 32 · normal -0.00 pts | -0.29 pts 38% up · n 34 · normal -0.02 pts | -0.81 pts 44% up · n 32 · normal -0.31 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | 0.00 pts 25% up · n 32 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.10 pts 47% up · n 34 · normal -0.30 pts | +0.40 pts 56% up · n 32 · normal -0.90 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2026-03-27 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 2025-04-03 · true for 12 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +22.0%
- 2024-08-05 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +21.5%
- 2022-09-26 · true for 16 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.9%
- 2022-04-26 · true for 16 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -2.9%
- 2022-01-25 · true for 16 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -7.8%
- 2021-12-01 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -9.7%
- 2021-01-27 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.3%
- 2020-10-26 · true for 7 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +34.5%
- 2020-09-03 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +31.3%
- 2020-02-27 · true for 70 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +27.9%
- 2018-12-21 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +33.3%
- 2018-02-05 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +3.4%
- 2015-08-24 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.5%
- 2011-08-04 · true for 75 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.9%
- 2010-05-06 · true for 23 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +18.8%
- 2009-10-30 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +14.2%
- 2008-09-15 · true for 186 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -11.7%
- 2008-03-14 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -41.3%
- 2008-01-22 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: -35.9%
- 2007-11-12 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: -37.5%
- 2007-08-15 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -8.1%
- 2003-01-24 · true for 39 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +32.5%
- 2002-07-09 · true for 83 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +5.2%
- 2001-09-07 · true for 36 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -17.7%
- 2001-03-12 · true for 10 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -1.2%
- 2000-12-20 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: -9.9%
- 2000-10-12 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: -17.9%
- 2000-04-14 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -12.8%
- 1998-12-14 · true for 11 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +23.0%
- 1998-08-04 · true for 52 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +21.8%
- 1997-12-24 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +31.5%
- 1997-10-27 · true for 17 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +21.5%
- 1991-01-08 · true for 7 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +32.8%
- 1990-08-06 · true for 24 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.8%
- 35 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
More about volatility
- What happens when the VIX is above 40?
- What happens when the VIX is above 50?
- What happens when the VIX is below 12?
- What happens after the VIX doubles in a month?
- What happens when financial stress is high (St. Louis Fed index above 1)?
- What happens when financial conditions are tight (Chicago Fed NFCI above 0)?