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What happens after the Bank of Japan raises rates?
It has happened 23 times since 1946. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 12 of 21 times, with a median move of +3.6%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +10.7%, up 74% of the time.
Bank of Japan rate up more than 0.1 points over 3 months. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | -0.6% 48% up · n 23 · normal +1.1% | +3.6% 57% up · n 21 · normal +10.7% | +13.9% 72% up · n 18 · normal +29.5% |
| Gold | +1.2% 50% up · n 16 · normal 0.0% | +11.4% 67% up · n 15 · normal +1.8% | +2.9% 50% up · n 12 · normal +7.2% |
| Oil | 0.0% 44% up · n 16 · normal 0.0% | -6.3% 27% up · n 15 · normal 0.0% | +0.5% 50% up · n 12 · normal +1.4% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | +0.07 pts 65% up · n 20 · normal +0.01 pts | +0.08 pts 61% up · n 18 · normal +0.14 pts | +0.23 pts 53% up · n 15 · normal +0.12 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | +0.27 pts 65% up · n 23 · normal -0.00 pts | -0.21 pts 43% up · n 21 · normal -0.08 pts | -0.98 pts 44% up · n 18 · normal -0.22 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | -0.10 pts 33% up · n 21 · normal 0.00 pts | +0.30 pts 65% up · n 20 · normal -0.20 pts | +1.90 pts 76% up · n 17 · normal -0.30 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2026-06-18 · true for 62 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 2025-12-23 · true for 61 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 2025-01-28 · true for 63 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.0%
- 2024-08-02 · true for 64 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.7%
- 2024-03-22 · true for 62 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +8.3%
- 2007-02-22 · true for 64 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -7.1%
- 2006-07-17 · true for 64 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +25.5%
- 1990-08-31 · true for 63 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +22.6%
- 1989-10-12 · true for 173 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -15.6%
- 1989-06-01 · true for 64 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.8%
- 1979-04-18 · true for 273 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -0.6%
- 1973-04-03 · true for 229 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -13.6%
- 1969-09-02 · true for 64 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -15.3%
- 1968-01-08 · true for 63 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +4.8%
- 1967-09-05 · true for 62 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +6.2%
- 1964-03-19 · true for 63 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +9.5%
- 1961-07-24 · true for 111 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -13.1%
- 1959-12-03 · true for 62 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -5.7%
- 1957-03-21 · true for 97 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -3.8%
- 1955-08-11 · true for 63 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.5%
- 1951-10-02 · true for 73 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +3.6%
- 1948-04-27 · true for 117 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -5.1%
- 1946-10-15 · true for 73 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +1.9%
- 23 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
More about other countries
- What happens when euro area inflation is above 5%?
- What happens when the ECB raises rates 2 points in a year?
- What happens when euro area unemployment is above 10%?
- What happens when the German 10-year yield is below zero?
- What happens when UK inflation is above 8%?
- What happens when the Bank of England raises rates 2 points in a year?
- What happens after UK share prices fall 20% in a year?
- What happens when Japan's inflation is above 3%?