What happened last time? › Stock markets
What happens after the DAX enters a bear market (down 20% from its high)?
It has happened 20 times since 1987. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 12 of 20 times, with a median move of +13.9%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +11.1%, up 79% of the time.
DAX more than 20% below its 1-year high. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +0.9% 70% up · n 20 · normal +1.2% | +13.9% 60% up · n 20 · normal +11.1% | +39.6% 75% up · n 20 · normal +32.9% |
| Gold | -0.3% 45% up · n 20 · normal +0.0% | +1.9% 60% up · n 20 · normal +2.4% | +40.4% 80% up · n 20 · normal +12.7% |
| Oil | -6.9% 35% up · n 20 · normal +1.0% | -11.6% 35% up · n 20 · normal +6.0% | +9.4% 55% up · n 20 · normal +12.9% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | +0.05 pts 60% up · n 20 · normal -0.02 pts | -0.45 pts 40% up · n 20 · normal -0.24 pts | -0.08 pts 45% up · n 20 · normal -0.52 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | +0.03 pts 53% up · n 19 · normal -0.00 pts | -1.16 pts 25% up · n 20 · normal +0.05 pts | -1.37 pts 35% up · n 20 · normal -0.31 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | +0.05 pts 50% up · n 18 · normal 0.00 pts | +0.05 pts 50% up · n 20 · normal -0.30 pts | +0.35 pts 55% up · n 20 · normal -0.80 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2022-08-26 · true for 36 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +8.6%
- 2022-06-23 · true for 14 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +14.6%
- 2022-03-07 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -5.1%
- 2020-03-09 · true for 48 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +41.1%
- 2018-12-06 · true for 19 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.7%
- 2016-06-27 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +20.9%
- 2016-01-08 · true for 54 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +18.5%
- 2015-08-24 · true for 11 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.5%
- 2012-06-05 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +25.2%
- 2011-08-08 · true for 90 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +25.2%
- 2008-06-26 · true for 266 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -28.4%
- 2008-03-10 · true for 7 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -43.5%
- 2008-01-23 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: -38.2%
- 2002-04-26 · true for 297 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -16.5%
- 2001-06-15 · true for 170 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -17.1%
- 2001-02-16 · true for 41 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -15.2%
- 2000-11-30 · true for 18 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -13.3%
- 1998-08-28 · true for 104 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +31.3%
- 1992-10-05 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +13.2%
- 1990-08-22 · true for 139 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +23.6%
- 20 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
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