What happened last time? › Stock markets
What happens after the DAX falls 10% in a month?
It has happened 32 times since 1988. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 23 of 32 times, with a median move of +13.1%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +11.1%, up 79% of the time.
DAX down more than 10% over 30 days. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +0.6% 56% up · n 32 · normal +1.2% | +13.1% 72% up · n 32 · normal +11.1% | +35.6% 78% up · n 32 · normal +32.9% |
| Gold | -0.7% 41% up · n 32 · normal +0.0% | +3.4% 59% up · n 32 · normal +2.5% | +15.8% 69% up · n 32 · normal +12.8% |
| Oil | +4.7% 59% up · n 32 · normal +1.0% | -6.8% 44% up · n 32 · normal +6.0% | +28.5% 63% up · n 32 · normal +12.8% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.00 pts 50% up · n 32 · normal -0.02 pts | -0.26 pts 47% up · n 32 · normal -0.24 pts | -0.48 pts 34% up · n 32 · normal -0.51 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | +0.04 pts 53% up · n 32 · normal -0.00 pts | -0.47 pts 41% up · n 32 · normal +0.05 pts | -0.19 pts 44% up · n 32 · normal -0.31 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | -0.05 pts 25% up · n 32 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.15 pts 44% up · n 32 · normal -0.30 pts | -0.10 pts 44% up · n 32 · normal -0.80 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2022-06-29 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.1%
- 2022-03-03 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -7.3%
- 2020-10-28 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +40.5%
- 2020-02-28 · true for 25 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +29.0%
- 2016-01-20 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +21.7%
- 2015-08-20 · true for 9 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.3%
- 2014-10-15 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +8.7%
- 2011-08-03 · true for 27 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +8.3%
- 2011-03-16 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.6%
- 2009-02-02 · true for 14 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +33.7%
- 2008-10-02 · true for 28 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -8.0%
- 2008-07-01 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -28.1%
- 2008-01-22 · true for 15 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -35.9%
- 2006-06-08 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +19.9%
- 2003-02-03 · true for 14 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +32.0%
- 2002-12-27 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +25.2%
- 2002-09-17 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.5%
- 2002-06-13 · true for 33 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -2.1%
- 2001-08-30 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -18.9%
- 2001-03-14 · true for 8 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -1.2%
- 2000-12-04 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: -13.6%
- 1999-08-05 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.4%
- 1999-03-03 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +12.5%
- 1998-08-11 · true for 39 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +21.8%
- 1997-10-28 · true for 11 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.9%
- 1997-08-28 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +13.7%
- 1994-10-05 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +28.5%
- 1994-06-20 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +19.6%
- 1992-08-11 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.5%
- 1991-01-07 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +32.3%
- 1990-08-08 · true for 32 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.1%
- 1989-10-16 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -12.8%
- 32 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
More about stock markets
- What happens after the S&P 500 falls 10% in a month?
- What happens after the S&P 500 falls 5% in a week?
- What happens after the S&P 500 enters a bear market (down 20% from its high)?
- What happens after the S&P 500 falls 30% from its high?
- What happens after the S&P 500 rises 20% in three months?
- What happens when the S&P 500 hits an all-time high?
- What happens when the S&P 500 is 10% below its 200-day average?
- What happens after the Dow falls 10% in a month?