What happened last time? › Stock markets
What happens when the DAX is 10% below its 200-day average?
It has happened 21 times since 1988. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 12 of 21 times, with a median move of +9.1%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +10.9%, up 79% of the time.
DAX: % above its 200-day average below -10. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +0.4% 57% up · n 21 · normal +1.2% | +9.1% 57% up · n 21 · normal +10.9% | +32.7% 62% up · n 21 · normal +32.4% |
| Gold | -0.2% 48% up · n 21 · normal +0.1% | +2.6% 67% up · n 21 · normal +2.9% | +34.3% 81% up · n 21 · normal +13.5% |
| Oil | -2.8% 38% up · n 21 · normal +1.1% | -17.0% 38% up · n 21 · normal +5.2% | -1.6% 48% up · n 21 · normal +11.8% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.02 pts 48% up · n 21 · normal -0.02 pts | -0.55 pts 33% up · n 21 · normal -0.23 pts | -0.07 pts 48% up · n 21 · normal -0.50 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | +0.03 pts 52% up · n 21 · normal -0.00 pts | -1.07 pts 24% up · n 21 · normal +0.04 pts | -0.53 pts 43% up · n 21 · normal -0.34 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | 0.00 pts 24% up · n 21 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.10 pts 48% up · n 21 · normal -0.30 pts | +0.60 pts 57% up · n 21 · normal -0.80 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2022-06-13 · true for 49 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.5%
- 2022-04-26 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -2.9%
- 2022-03-01 · true for 11 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -8.2%
- 2020-03-09 · true for 48 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +41.1%
- 2018-10-24 · true for 26 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +13.3%
- 2016-01-08 · true for 25 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +18.5%
- 2015-08-24 · true for 13 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.5%
- 2014-10-15 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +8.7%
- 2011-08-05 · true for 85 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.0%
- 2008-06-26 · true for 167 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -28.4%
- 2008-01-22 · true for 45 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -35.9%
- 2002-06-14 · true for 206 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -1.9%
- 2001-07-24 · true for 71 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -28.0%
- 2001-02-23 · true for 29 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -12.5%
- 2000-11-30 · true for 10 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -13.3%
- 2000-10-12 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -17.9%
- 1998-12-11 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +21.5%
- 1998-09-21 · true for 22 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +27.7%
- 1992-09-28 · true for 24 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.8%
- 1992-08-20 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +9.1%
- 1990-08-21 · true for 117 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +21.4%
- 21 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
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