What happened last time? › Stock markets
What happens after the DAX rises 20% in three months?
It has happened 20 times since 1988. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 14 of 20 times, with a median move of +8.8%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +11.1%, up 79% of the time.
DAX up more than 20% over 3 months. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +2.0% 70% up · n 20 · normal +1.2% | +8.8% 70% up · n 20 · normal +11.1% | +32.9% 85% up · n 20 · normal +32.8% |
| Gold | -1.2% 35% up · n 20 · normal +0.0% | +0.9% 50% up · n 20 · normal +2.6% | +10.2% 65% up · n 20 · normal +13.0% |
| Oil | +3.1% 55% up · n 20 · normal +1.0% | +7.9% 60% up · n 20 · normal +5.9% | +47.9% 80% up · n 20 · normal +12.6% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | +0.07 pts 60% up · n 20 · normal -0.02 pts | -0.21 pts 40% up · n 20 · normal -0.24 pts | -0.04 pts 50% up · n 20 · normal -0.52 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | -0.01 pts 47% up · n 19 · normal -0.00 pts | +0.44 pts 55% up · n 20 · normal +0.05 pts | +0.65 pts 65% up · n 20 · normal -0.33 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | 0.00 pts 26% up · n 19 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.40 pts 25% up · n 20 · normal -0.30 pts | -1.25 pts 20% up · n 20 · normal -0.80 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2020-06-08 · true for 36 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +30.8%
- 2015-03-11 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -2.5%
- 2015-01-26 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: -7.5%
- 2012-09-24 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.5%
- 2012-02-21 · true for 14 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.0%
- 2009-09-21 · true for 7 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.1%
- 2009-05-22 · true for 19 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +22.6%
- 2007-06-01 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -8.8%
- 2003-12-30 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +9.4%
- 2003-08-18 · true for 9 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +8.2%
- 2003-06-02 · true for 28 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.9%
- 2001-12-11 · true for 9 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -20.4%
- 1999-12-21 · true for 61 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -11.8%
- 1998-12-31 · true for 8 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +19.5%
- 1998-02-06 · true for 39 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +22.4%
- 1997-07-02 · true for 26 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +26.8%
- 1997-03-07 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +31.1%
- 1993-08-18 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +1.6%
- 1991-04-16 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.4%
- 1990-01-15 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -6.9%
- 20 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
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