What happened last time? › Stock markets
What happens after the Dow enters a bear market (down 20% from its high)?
It has happened 49 times since 1885. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 20 of 30 times, with a median move of +9.0%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +9.1%, up 69% of the time.
Dow Jones Industrial Average more than 20% below its 1-year high. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +0.7% 53% up · n 30 · normal +1.0% | +9.0% 67% up · n 30 · normal +9.1% | +31.8% 87% up · n 30 · normal +25.1% |
| Gold | 0.0% 31% up · n 16 · normal 0.0% | +8.0% 71% up · n 17 · normal +4.0% | +32.5% 71% up · n 17 · normal +14.0% |
| Oil | 0.0% 19% up · n 16 · normal 0.0% | 0.0% 41% up · n 17 · normal 0.0% | +17.0% 53% up · n 17 · normal +10.2% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.01 pts 41% up · n 17 · normal +0.01 pts | +0.01 pts 53% up · n 17 · normal +0.13 pts | -0.48 pts 47% up · n 17 · normal +0.17 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | 0.00 pts 49% up · n 35 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.55 pts 31% up · n 35 · normal -0.00 pts | -0.61 pts 43% up · n 35 · normal -0.04 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | +0.05 pts 50% up · n 16 · normal 0.00 pts | +0.80 pts 76% up · n 17 · normal -0.30 pts | +0.60 pts 65% up · n 17 · normal -0.50 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2022-09-26 · true for 8 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.9%
- 2020-03-11 · true for 29 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +43.7%
- 2008-09-04 · true for 238 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -17.8%
- 2008-07-02 · true for 12 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -28.9%
- 2002-07-16 · true for 126 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.3%
- 2001-09-17 · true for 15 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -15.9%
- 1982-06-04 · true for 12 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +49.4%
- 1982-02-22 · true for 16 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +30.4%
- 1978-01-09 · true for 44 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +9.6%
- 1977-10-24 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +6.4%
- 1974-07-08 · true for 146 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.2%
- 1973-11-26 · true for 23 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -28.1%
- 1970-01-26 · true for 84 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +8.4%
- 1969-12-09 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -1.1%
- 1966-08-22 · true for 52 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +19.8%
- 1962-09-24 · true for 22 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +29.4%
- 1962-05-28 · true for 30 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +26.1%
- 1947-04-14 · true for 28 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +8.2%
- 1946-09-10 · true for 40 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +3.0%
- 1942-03-06 · true for 87 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +35.4%
- 1941-12-22 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.1%
- 1941-04-09 · true for 25 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -17.6%
- 1941-02-14 · true for 9 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -9.5%
- 1940-05-17 · true for 68 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -6.0%
- 1939-04-06 · true for 7 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.1%
- 1937-09-23 · true for 280 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -17.6%
- 1934-09-14 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +39.3%
- 1934-07-26 · true for 7 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +29.1%
- 1933-10-19 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +4.9%
- 1929-10-24 · true for 1027 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -31.1%
- 1920-04-23 · true for 400 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1920-02-05 · true for 22 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1917-08-28 · true for 179 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1917-02-02 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1913-06-05 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1910-07-05 · true for 60 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1907-08-06 · true for 199 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1907-05-27 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1907-03-14 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1903-07-16 · true for 260 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1901-12-12 · true for 8 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1900-04-16 · true for 164 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1900-03-02 · true for 9 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1899-12-18 · true for 7 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1898-03-11 · true for 22 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1896-06-29 · true for 82 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1895-12-20 · true for 11 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1893-05-04 · true for 225 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1890-11-10 · true for 36 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 49 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
More about stock markets
- What happens after the S&P 500 falls 10% in a month?
- What happens after the S&P 500 falls 5% in a week?
- What happens after the S&P 500 enters a bear market (down 20% from its high)?
- What happens after the S&P 500 falls 30% from its high?
- What happens after the S&P 500 rises 20% in three months?
- What happens when the S&P 500 hits an all-time high?
- What happens when the S&P 500 is 10% below its 200-day average?
- What happens after the Dow falls 10% in a month?