What happened last time? › Stock markets
What happens after the Dow falls 30% from its high?
It has happened 22 times since 1885. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 6 of 8 times, with a median move of +14.4%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +9.1%, up 69% of the time.
Dow Jones Industrial Average more than 30% below its 1-year high. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +2.2% 63% up · n 8 · normal +1.0% | +14.4% 75% up · n 8 · normal +9.1% | +26.3% 63% up · n 8 · normal +25.1% |
| Gold | 0.0% 40% up · n 5 · normal 0.0% | +15.4% 100% up · n 5 · normal +4.0% | +46.7% 80% up · n 5 · normal +14.0% |
| Oil | -13.3% 0% up · n 5 · normal 0.0% | +4.0% 60% up · n 5 · normal 0.0% | +100.0% 80% up · n 5 · normal +10.2% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.09 pts 40% up · n 5 · normal +0.01 pts | +0.31 pts 60% up · n 5 · normal +0.13 pts | -0.76 pts 40% up · n 5 · normal +0.17 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | -0.54 pts 29% up · n 14 · normal 0.00 pts | -5.19 pts 14% up · n 14 · normal -0.00 pts | -3.35 pts 29% up · n 14 · normal -0.04 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | +0.15 pts 100% up · n 4 · normal 0.00 pts | +2.70 pts 100% up · n 5 · normal -0.30 pts | +0.20 pts 80% up · n 5 · normal -0.50 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2020-03-16 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +66.1%
- 2008-10-07 · true for 170 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +6.2%
- 2002-10-07 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +32.3%
- 1974-08-23 · true for 76 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.8%
- 1970-05-22 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +39.8%
- 1937-10-15 · true for 208 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.1%
- 1930-05-02 · true for 822 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -37.8%
- 1929-10-28 · true for 75 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -21.5%
- 1921-06-20 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1921-03-10 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1920-11-17 · true for 32 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1920-09-30 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1920-08-09 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1917-10-15 · true for 51 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1907-09-27 · true for 127 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1904-02-09 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1903-09-24 · true for 75 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1903-08-08 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1900-09-24 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1900-06-22 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1896-08-06 · true for 11 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1893-07-18 · true for 38 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 22 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
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- What happens after the S&P 500 falls 5% in a week?
- What happens after the S&P 500 enters a bear market (down 20% from its high)?
- What happens after the S&P 500 falls 30% from its high?
- What happens after the S&P 500 rises 20% in three months?
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- What happens when the S&P 500 is 10% below its 200-day average?
- What happens after the Dow falls 10% in a month?