What happened last time? › Stock markets
What happens when the Dow hits an all-time high?
It has happened 110 times since 1885. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 60 of 86 times, with a median move of +9.5%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +9.1%, up 69% of the time.
Dow Jones Industrial Average: % below its all-time high above -0.01. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +1.1% 63% up · n 87 · normal +1.0% | +9.5% 70% up · n 86 · normal +9.1% | +23.5% 79% up · n 81 · normal +25.1% |
| Gold | -0.1% 35% up · n 72 · normal 0.0% | 0.0% 42% up · n 71 · normal +4.0% | +4.3% 55% up · n 66 · normal +14.0% |
| Oil | -0.2% 33% up · n 72 · normal 0.0% | 0.0% 45% up · n 71 · normal 0.0% | -6.5% 41% up · n 66 · normal +10.2% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | +0.01 pts 51% up · n 82 · normal +0.01 pts | +0.21 pts 65% up · n 81 · normal +0.13 pts | -0.08 pts 49% up · n 76 · normal +0.17 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | 0.00 pts 45% up · n 95 · normal 0.00 pts | +0.57 pts 63% up · n 99 · normal -0.00 pts | -0.24 pts 44% up · n 94 · normal -0.04 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | -0.10 pts 30% up · n 77 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.50 pts 17% up · n 81 · normal -0.30 pts | -1.15 pts 26% up · n 76 · normal -0.50 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2026-05-21 · true for 17 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 2025-07-23 · true for 27 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.5%
- 2024-08-26 · true for 27 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.1%
- 2024-07-12 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.5%
- 2024-05-15 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.5%
- 2023-12-13 · true for 24 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +28.6%
- 2021-12-29 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -19.7%
- 2021-10-22 · true for 9 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -17.4%
- 2021-07-02 · true for 11 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -12.1%
- 2020-11-16 · true for 31 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +29.6%
- 2019-11-04 · true for 28 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +9.4%
- 2019-07-03 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +4.5%
- 2018-09-20 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +2.1%
- 2017-09-12 · true for 49 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.7%
- 2017-06-01 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.5%
- 2017-01-25 · true for 15 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +23.5%
- 2016-11-10 · true for 17 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +19.1%
- 2016-07-12 · true for 9 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +13.5%
- 2015-05-18 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -3.9%
- 2015-02-20 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -9.1%
- 2014-10-31 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +3.0%
- 2014-09-05 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -4.3%
- 2014-04-30 · true for 15 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.7%
- 2013-10-29 · true for 22 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.9%
- 2013-09-18 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +16.6%
- 2013-07-11 · true for 7 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.5%
- 2013-03-05 · true for 24 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +21.7%
- 2007-10-01 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -24.6%
- 2007-07-12 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -19.9%
- 2007-04-18 · true for 18 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -7.3%
- 2006-10-03 · true for 32 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.4%
- 1999-12-23 · true for 8 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -10.4%
- 1999-08-23 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.1%
- 1999-07-02 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +4.6%
- 1999-03-05 · true for 22 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.5%
- 1999-01-06 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.3%
- 1998-11-23 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +18.2%
- 1998-07-14 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +18.7%
- 1998-02-10 · true for 26 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +20.1%
- 1997-05-05 · true for 24 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +34.4%
- 1996-12-27 · true for 16 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +23.7%
- 1996-09-13 · true for 23 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +35.8%
- 1996-05-20 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +25.0%
- 1996-01-22 · true for 19 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +27.6%
- 1995-10-19 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +20.3%
- 1995-09-12 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.7%
- 1995-02-15 · true for 47 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +34.4%
- 1993-10-25 · true for 25 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -0.6%
- 1993-07-21 · true for 11 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +1.2%
- 1993-04-16 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -0.6%
- 1993-03-08 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +2.5%
- 1993-02-04 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +4.5%
- 1992-04-14 · true for 8 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +8.8%
- 1992-01-02 · true for 14 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +4.4%
- 1983-11-29 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: -1.7%
- 1983-09-20 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -1.4%
- 1983-06-15 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -10.0%
- 1983-02-14 · true for 18 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +5.2%
- 1982-12-27 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.9%
- 1982-11-03 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +14.4%
The 60 most recent of 110.
Open this in the lab and play one of 6 episodes- 110 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
More about stock markets
- What happens after the S&P 500 falls 10% in a month?
- What happens after the S&P 500 falls 5% in a week?
- What happens after the S&P 500 enters a bear market (down 20% from its high)?
- What happens after the S&P 500 falls 30% from its high?
- What happens after the S&P 500 rises 20% in three months?
- What happens when the S&P 500 hits an all-time high?
- What happens when the S&P 500 is 10% below its 200-day average?
- What happens after the Dow falls 10% in a month?