What happened last time? › Stock markets

What happens when the Dow is 10% below its 200-day average?

It has happened 80 times since 1885. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 32 of 47 times, with a median move of +11.5%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +9.1%, up 69% of the time.

Dow Jones Industrial Average: % above its 200-day average below -10. Not true on 2026-09-25.

What came next

Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.

Every time it happened

• 2025-04-08 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +36.1%
• 2022-09-23 · true for 11 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.0%
• 2022-05-19 · true for 12 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.5%
• 2020-03-09 · true for 39 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +41.1%
• 2018-12-21 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +33.3%
• 2015-08-24 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.5%
• 2011-09-22 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +29.3%
• 2011-08-10 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +25.2%
• 2008-09-15 · true for 152 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -11.7%
• 2008-06-26 · true for 17 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -28.4%
• 2008-03-07 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -47.2%
• 2008-01-22 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: -35.9%
• 2003-02-07 · true for 9 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +37.7%
• 2002-07-10 · true for 66 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.4%
• 2001-09-17 · true for 23 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -15.9%
• 2001-03-21 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +2.8%
• 1998-08-31 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +37.9%
• 1982-03-08 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +40.9%
• 1981-09-03 · true for 32 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +1.2%
• 1980-03-26 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +38.1%
• 1978-01-09 · true for 36 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +9.6%
• 1977-10-12 · true for 15 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.5%
• 1974-07-08 · true for 114 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.2%
• 1973-11-26 · true for 12 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -28.1%
• 1973-08-21 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -27.1%
• 1971-11-23 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +29.7%
• 1970-05-04 · true for 38 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +30.8%
• 1970-01-27 · true for 15 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +8.3%
• 1969-12-09 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -1.1%
• 1969-07-22 · true for 27 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -17.6%
• 1966-08-01 · true for 53 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.9%
• 1962-09-24 · true for 13 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +29.4%
• 1962-05-22 · true for 59 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.5%
• 1957-10-17 · true for 16 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +26.6%
• 1946-09-03 · true for 74 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +2.2%
• 1942-02-09 · true for 83 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +21.1%
• 1941-12-09 · true for 12 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.8%
• 1940-05-14 · true for 70 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -7.7%
• 1939-04-04 · true for 25 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.9%
• 1937-09-10 · true for 199 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -15.3%
• 1934-09-14 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +39.3%
• 1934-07-26 · true for 9 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +29.1%
• 1933-02-20 · true for 14 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +90.0%
• 1931-03-28 · true for 392 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -54.3%
• 1930-09-19 · true for 122 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -44.6%
• 1930-06-16 · true for 34 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -33.6%
• 1929-10-28 · true for 96 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -21.5%
• 1923-06-27 · true for 8 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
• 1921-08-16 · true for 9 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
• 1921-06-16 · true for 10 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
• 1921-03-11 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
• 1920-11-08 · true for 61 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
• 1920-09-30 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: –
• 1920-07-26 · true for 22 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
• 1920-04-29 · true for 31 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
• 1920-02-05 · true for 25 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
• 1917-08-31 · true for 99 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
• 1917-02-02 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
• 1914-07-30 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: –
• 1913-06-04 · true for 14 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –

The 60 most recent of 80.

• 80 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
• Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
• Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.

More about stock markets

• What happens after the S&P 500 falls 10% in a month?
• What happens after the S&P 500 falls 5% in a week?
• What happens after the S&P 500 enters a bear market (down 20% from its high)?
• What happens after the S&P 500 falls 30% from its high?
• What happens after the S&P 500 rises 20% in three months?
• What happens when the S&P 500 hits an all-time high?
• What happens when the S&P 500 is 10% below its 200-day average?
• What happens after the Dow falls 10% in a month?