What happened last time? › Stock markets
What happens after the Dow rises 20% in three months?
It has happened 44 times since 1885. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 21 of 27 times, with a median move of +17.7%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +9.1%, up 69% of the time.
Dow Jones Industrial Average up more than 20% over 3 months. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +2.7% 74% up · n 27 · normal +1.0% | +17.7% 78% up · n 27 · normal +9.1% | +10.1% 59% up · n 27 · normal +25.1% |
| Gold | 0.0% 47% up · n 15 · normal 0.0% | 0.0% 41% up · n 17 · normal +4.0% | +8.6% 53% up · n 17 · normal +14.0% |
| Oil | 0.0% 40% up · n 15 · normal 0.0% | +15.2% 76% up · n 17 · normal 0.0% | +66.5% 76% up · n 17 · normal +10.2% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | +0.01 pts 53% up · n 17 · normal +0.01 pts | +0.50 pts 59% up · n 17 · normal +0.13 pts | +0.50 pts 59% up · n 17 · normal +0.17 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | 0.00 pts 48% up · n 33 · normal 0.00 pts | +0.75 pts 64% up · n 33 · normal -0.00 pts | +0.64 pts 58% up · n 33 · normal -0.04 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | +0.10 pts 53% up · n 17 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.40 pts 24% up · n 17 · normal -0.30 pts | -1.20 pts 24% up · n 17 · normal -0.50 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2020-08-12 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +32.0%
- 2020-06-15 · true for 10 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +38.5%
- 2009-10-09 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +8.7%
- 2009-05-29 · true for 11 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +18.5%
- 2003-06-10 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +14.9%
- 2001-12-21 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: -21.8%
- 1999-05-11 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +2.0%
- 1998-12-31 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +19.5%
- 1998-11-30 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +19.4%
- 1997-07-03 · true for 9 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +25.0%
- 1992-01-02 · true for 64 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +4.4%
- 1982-10-08 · true for 29 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +30.3%
- 1980-07-18 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.1%
- 1976-03-08 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +0.7%
- 1975-02-19 · true for 42 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +24.5%
- 1970-08-25 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +23.8%
- 1963-01-22 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +17.7%
- 1938-06-25 · true for 53 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +3.1%
- 1935-06-13 · true for 8 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +44.2%
- 1934-01-18 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -13.6%
- 1933-04-29 · true for 87 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +37.9%
- 1932-08-11 · true for 62 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +39.2%
- 1930-03-21 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -25.6%
- 1930-02-10 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -25.5%
- 1929-08-21 · true for 16 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -32.4%
- 1929-03-09 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: -6.8%
- 1928-10-15 · true for 64 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +40.0%
- 1926-08-16 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1925-01-09 · true for 12 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1919-05-08 · true for 44 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1916-11-03 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1915-08-09 · true for 70 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1915-04-28 · true for 22 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1908-05-11 · true for 18 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1908-03-25 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1905-12-13 · true for 29 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1904-10-28 · true for 49 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1900-12-19 · true for 18 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1899-03-17 · true for 32 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1899-01-18 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1898-06-10 · true for 11 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1897-07-19 · true for 59 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1896-11-04 · true for 18 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1893-10-25 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 44 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
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