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What happens after the Hang Seng enters a bear market (down 20% from its high)?
It has happened 24 times since 1986. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 17 of 24 times, with a median move of +8.2%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +10.8%, up 77% of the time.
Hang Seng more than 20% below its 1-year high. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | -0.3% 42% up · n 24 · normal +1.2% | +8.2% 71% up · n 24 · normal +10.8% | +37.0% 75% up · n 24 · normal +32.4% |
| Gold | +0.5% 54% up · n 24 · normal +0.1% | -0.3% 46% up · n 24 · normal +2.3% | +25.4% 67% up · n 24 · normal +11.5% |
| Oil | +0.0% 50% up · n 24 · normal +1.0% | +2.3% 54% up · n 24 · normal +4.9% | +26.5% 71% up · n 24 · normal +13.2% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | +0.00 pts 50% up · n 24 · normal -0.02 pts | -0.22 pts 50% up · n 24 · normal -0.21 pts | -0.06 pts 50% up · n 24 · normal -0.49 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | +0.03 pts 52% up · n 23 · normal -0.00 pts | -0.44 pts 38% up · n 24 · normal +0.06 pts | -0.23 pts 46% up · n 24 · normal -0.26 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | 0.00 pts 30% up · n 23 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.20 pts 42% up · n 24 · normal -0.30 pts | -0.60 pts 42% up · n 24 · normal -0.80 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2021-11-08 · true for 271 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -18.6%
- 2021-08-20 · true for 17 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -4.8%
- 2020-09-25 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +35.1%
- 2020-03-13 · true for 26 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +45.5%
- 2018-09-11 · true for 64 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +3.9%
- 2015-08-21 · true for 202 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.8%
- 2012-05-21 · true for 7 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +26.8%
- 2011-08-09 · true for 99 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +19.6%
- 2008-01-16 · true for 356 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -38.6%
- 2004-05-17 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +8.3%
- 2002-12-18 · true for 94 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +22.2%
- 2002-09-16 · true for 28 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.5%
- 2002-06-26 · true for 8 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +1.3%
- 2001-03-01 · true for 274 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -8.8%
- 2000-11-24 · true for 9 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -14.3%
- 2000-09-22 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -33.3%
- 2000-05-10 · true for 10 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -9.2%
- 1999-01-28 · true for 15 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.5%
- 1997-10-20 · true for 253 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.3%
- 1994-03-16 · true for 233 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +5.5%
- 1992-12-03 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +8.1%
- 1990-09-25 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +25.5%
- 1989-06-05 · true for 77 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +13.9%
- 1987-10-26 · true for 252 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +24.0%
- 24 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
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