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What happens after the Hang Seng falls 30% from its high?
It has happened 17 times since 1986. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 11 of 17 times, with a median move of +13.9%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +10.8%, up 77% of the time.
Hang Seng more than 30% below its 1-year high. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +1.9% 65% up · n 17 · normal +1.2% | +13.9% 65% up · n 17 · normal +10.8% | +35.0% 76% up · n 17 · normal +32.4% |
| Gold | +0.1% 59% up · n 17 · normal +0.1% | +1.2% 59% up · n 17 · normal +2.3% | +17.5% 59% up · n 17 · normal +11.5% |
| Oil | +2.3% 65% up · n 17 · normal +1.0% | -9.7% 35% up · n 17 · normal +4.9% | +9.9% 65% up · n 17 · normal +13.2% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.04 pts 47% up · n 17 · normal -0.02 pts | -0.21 pts 47% up · n 17 · normal -0.21 pts | -0.18 pts 35% up · n 17 · normal -0.49 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | +0.08 pts 56% up · n 16 · normal -0.00 pts | -1.46 pts 29% up · n 17 · normal +0.06 pts | -0.61 pts 29% up · n 17 · normal -0.26 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | -0.05 pts 25% up · n 16 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.20 pts 41% up · n 17 · normal -0.30 pts | +0.30 pts 53% up · n 17 · normal -0.80 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2022-09-22 · true for 66 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.0%
- 2022-04-25 · true for 17 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -5.2%
- 2022-03-11 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -8.2%
- 2016-05-13 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.8%
- 2016-01-11 · true for 34 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.9%
- 2011-09-26 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +24.0%
- 2008-06-27 · true for 217 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -28.1%
- 2008-03-17 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -39.0%
- 2008-01-22 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: -35.9%
- 2001-07-11 · true for 121 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -21.4%
- 2001-03-22 · true for 8 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +2.8%
- 1997-10-22 · true for 244 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.4%
- 1994-11-30 · true for 50 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +33.4%
- 1994-07-06 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +24.2%
- 1994-05-04 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.2%
- 1989-06-05 · true for 14 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +13.9%
- 1987-10-26 · true for 246 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +24.0%
- 17 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
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