What happened last time? › Stock markets
What happens when the Hang Seng hits an all-time high?
It has happened 20 times since 1986. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 13 of 20 times, with a median move of +4.7%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +10.8%, up 77% of the time.
Hang Seng: % below its all-time high above -0.01. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +1.9% 65% up · n 20 · normal +1.2% | +4.7% 65% up · n 20 · normal +10.8% | +22.6% 75% up · n 20 · normal +32.4% |
| Gold | -0.6% 45% up · n 20 · normal +0.1% | -1.1% 50% up · n 20 · normal +2.3% | +10.8% 80% up · n 20 · normal +11.5% |
| Oil | -0.2% 50% up · n 20 · normal +1.0% | -4.5% 30% up · n 20 · normal +4.9% | -1.2% 50% up · n 20 · normal +13.2% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.11 pts 45% up · n 20 · normal -0.02 pts | -0.72 pts 30% up · n 20 · normal -0.21 pts | -0.26 pts 45% up · n 20 · normal -0.49 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | -0.01 pts 37% up · n 19 · normal -0.00 pts | -0.15 pts 40% up · n 20 · normal +0.06 pts | -0.44 pts 20% up · n 20 · normal -0.26 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | 0.00 pts 16% up · n 19 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.25 pts 40% up · n 20 · normal -0.30 pts | -1.00 pts 30% up · n 20 · normal -0.80 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2018-01-16 · true for 8 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -5.8%
- 2007-08-27 · true for 22 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -13.3%
- 2007-05-04 · true for 19 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -6.1%
- 2006-10-26 · true for 18 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.5%
- 2000-02-11 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -5.2%
- 1999-12-27 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -9.7%
- 1997-05-09 · true for 24 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +34.4%
- 1997-01-15 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +23.9%
- 1996-10-09 · true for 17 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +39.3%
- 1993-08-16 · true for 38 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +2.8%
- 1993-04-14 · true for 11 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -0.5%
- 1993-03-04 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +3.9%
- 1992-10-21 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.0%
- 1992-04-16 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.9%
- 1991-12-30 · true for 32 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +5.5%
- 1991-11-05 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.3%
- 1991-10-03 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +6.8%
- 1991-07-16 · true for 9 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +9.3%
- 1987-05-27 · true for 46 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -11.8%
- 1986-12-31 · true for 16 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +2.0%
- 20 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
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- What happens after the S&P 500 falls 30% from its high?
- What happens after the S&P 500 rises 20% in three months?
- What happens when the S&P 500 hits an all-time high?
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