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What happens after the Nasdaq enters a bear market (down 20% from its high)?
It has happened 21 times since 1971. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 13 of 21 times, with a median move of +14.3%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +11.1%, up 76% of the time.
Nasdaq Composite more than 20% below its 1-year high. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +1.5% 52% up · n 21 · normal +1.1% | +14.3% 62% up · n 21 · normal +11.1% | +36.3% 75% up · n 20 · normal +31.2% |
| Gold | -2.3% 43% up · n 21 · normal +0.2% | +1.5% 52% up · n 21 · normal +6.2% | +13.6% 60% up · n 20 · normal +14.1% |
| Oil | 0.0% 48% up · n 21 · normal 0.0% | -0.3% 48% up · n 21 · normal +4.0% | -2.5% 50% up · n 20 · normal +16.1% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.03 pts 33% up · n 21 · normal -0.01 pts | -0.40 pts 43% up · n 21 · normal -0.02 pts | -1.25 pts 35% up · n 20 · normal -0.28 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | +0.17 pts 62% up · n 21 · normal -0.01 pts | -0.41 pts 33% up · n 21 · normal +0.02 pts | -1.92 pts 35% up · n 20 · normal -0.25 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | +0.10 pts 58% up · n 19 · normal 0.00 pts | +0.20 pts 62% up · n 21 · normal -0.30 pts | +0.90 pts 75% up · n 20 · normal -0.70 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2025-04-04 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +29.7%
- 2022-04-22 · true for 206 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -3.2%
- 2022-03-07 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -5.1%
- 2020-03-12 · true for 16 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +59.0%
- 2018-12-21 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +33.3%
- 2008-09-04 · true for 223 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -17.8%
- 2008-07-02 · true for 14 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -28.9%
- 2008-02-06 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -36.2%
- 2000-04-12 · true for 723 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -19.3%
- 1998-08-31 · true for 15 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +37.9%
- 1990-08-21 · true for 103 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +21.4%
- 1988-05-23 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +26.9%
- 1987-10-19 · true for 91 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +24.3%
- 1984-02-06 · true for 125 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +14.3%
- 1982-05-26 · true for 52 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +46.3%
- 1982-02-23 · true for 27 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +31.6%
- 1981-09-25 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +9.4%
- 1980-03-27 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +37.1%
- 1978-10-31 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +9.3%
- 1973-11-02 · true for 346 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -31.0%
- 1973-04-25 · true for 98 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -17.3%
- 21 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
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