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What happens after the Nasdaq falls 30% from its high?
It has happened 11 times since 1971. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 6 of 11 times, with a median move of +3.2%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +11.1%, up 76% of the time.
Nasdaq Composite more than 30% below its 1-year high. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +0.1% 55% up · n 11 · normal +1.1% | +3.2% 55% up · n 11 · normal +11.1% | +10.8% 82% up · n 11 · normal +31.2% |
| Gold | -2.2% 27% up · n 11 · normal +0.2% | +6.7% 64% up · n 11 · normal +6.2% | +28.0% 73% up · n 11 · normal +14.1% |
| Oil | -5.2% 27% up · n 11 · normal 0.0% | -2.6% 36% up · n 11 · normal +4.0% | +6.8% 55% up · n 11 · normal +16.1% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | +0.12 pts 55% up · n 11 · normal -0.01 pts | +0.03 pts 55% up · n 11 · normal -0.02 pts | -0.18 pts 36% up · n 11 · normal -0.28 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | +0.17 pts 70% up · n 10 · normal -0.01 pts | -0.66 pts 27% up · n 11 · normal +0.02 pts | -1.60 pts 27% up · n 11 · normal -0.25 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | 0.00 pts 40% up · n 10 · normal 0.00 pts | +0.80 pts 82% up · n 11 · normal -0.30 pts | +1.00 pts 82% up · n 11 · normal -0.70 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2022-09-21 · true for 63 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +14.3%
- 2022-06-13 · true for 12 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.5%
- 2020-03-23 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +74.8%
- 2008-09-29 · true for 166 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -4.1%
- 2002-05-03 · true for 176 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -13.4%
- 2000-10-03 · true for 326 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -24.8%
- 2000-04-14 · true for 13 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -12.8%
- 1990-10-10 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +26.7%
- 1987-10-26 · true for 26 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +24.0%
- 1974-05-29 · true for 154 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +3.2%
- 1973-11-26 · true for 35 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -28.1%
- 11 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
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- What happens after the S&P 500 falls 30% from its high?
- What happens after the S&P 500 rises 20% in three months?
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- What happens when the S&P 500 is 10% below its 200-day average?
- What happens after the Dow falls 10% in a month?