What happened last time? › Stock markets
What happens when the Nasdaq is 10% below its 200-day average?
It has happened 31 times since 1971. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 19 of 31 times, with a median move of +15.3%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +11.2%, up 76% of the time.
Nasdaq Composite: % above its 200-day average below -10. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +3.8% 74% up · n 31 · normal +1.1% | +15.3% 61% up · n 31 · normal +11.2% | +38.0% 87% up · n 30 · normal +31.7% |
| Gold | +2.4% 58% up · n 31 · normal +0.2% | +6.1% 65% up · n 31 · normal +5.8% | +17.0% 63% up · n 30 · normal +13.2% |
| Oil | +0.2% 52% up · n 31 · normal 0.0% | -3.2% 45% up · n 31 · normal +3.4% | -1.1% 50% up · n 30 · normal +14.7% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | +0.01 pts 55% up · n 31 · normal -0.01 pts | -0.27 pts 48% up · n 31 · normal -0.02 pts | -0.46 pts 40% up · n 30 · normal -0.31 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | +0.04 pts 52% up · n 29 · normal -0.01 pts | -0.69 pts 32% up · n 31 · normal +0.04 pts | -1.75 pts 30% up · n 30 · normal -0.27 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | 0.00 pts 48% up · n 29 · normal 0.00 pts | +0.10 pts 55% up · n 31 · normal -0.30 pts | +0.30 pts 60% up · n 30 · normal -0.70 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2025-04-03 · true for 9 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +22.0%
- 2022-12-16 · true for 12 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +22.5%
- 2022-08-30 · true for 49 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +13.3%
- 2022-04-21 · true for 68 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -5.9%
- 2022-02-23 · true for 8 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -5.0%
- 2020-03-12 · true for 13 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +59.0%
- 2018-12-17 · true for 11 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +25.4%
- 2016-02-05 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +22.2%
- 2011-09-30 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +27.3%
- 2011-08-08 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +25.2%
- 2008-09-17 · true for 134 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -7.9%
- 2008-07-07 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -29.6%
- 2008-01-17 · true for 38 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -36.2%
- 2004-08-06 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.3%
- 2002-04-29 · true for 120 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -13.9%
- 2002-02-21 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -21.5%
- 2000-10-02 · true for 273 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -26.8%
- 2000-05-23 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -6.2%
- 1998-10-05 · true for 8 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +31.6%
- 1998-08-31 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +37.9%
- 1991-01-07 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +32.3%
- 1990-08-17 · true for 76 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.6%
- 1987-10-19 · true for 80 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +24.3%
- 1984-02-03 · true for 101 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.0%
- 1982-08-06 · true for 8 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +56.0%
- 1982-02-22 · true for 19 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +30.4%
- 1981-09-08 · true for 13 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +3.6%
- 1980-03-27 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +37.1%
- 1974-04-08 · true for 187 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -12.0%
- 1973-11-20 · true for 46 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -31.2%
- 1973-03-22 · true for 100 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -10.6%
- 31 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
More about stock markets
- What happens after the S&P 500 falls 10% in a month?
- What happens after the S&P 500 falls 5% in a week?
- What happens after the S&P 500 enters a bear market (down 20% from its high)?
- What happens after the S&P 500 falls 30% from its high?
- What happens after the S&P 500 rises 20% in three months?
- What happens when the S&P 500 hits an all-time high?
- What happens when the S&P 500 is 10% below its 200-day average?
- What happens after the Dow falls 10% in a month?