What happened last time? › Stock markets
What happens after the Nasdaq rises 20% in three months?
It has happened 40 times since 1971. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 31 of 39 times, with a median move of +11.2%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +11.1%, up 76% of the time.
Nasdaq Composite up more than 20% over 3 months. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +1.2% 63% up · n 40 · normal +1.1% | +11.2% 79% up · n 39 · normal +11.1% | +32.8% 78% up · n 37 · normal +31.4% |
| Gold | +0.4% 54% up · n 39 · normal +0.2% | +0.7% 56% up · n 39 · normal +6.1% | +9.6% 62% up · n 37 · normal +13.8% |
| Oil | +3.1% 62% up · n 39 · normal 0.0% | +7.0% 64% up · n 39 · normal +3.9% | +32.1% 70% up · n 37 · normal +15.7% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | +0.10 pts 68% up · n 40 · normal -0.01 pts | +0.33 pts 56% up · n 39 · normal -0.02 pts | -0.39 pts 41% up · n 37 · normal -0.29 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | -0.06 pts 45% up · n 40 · normal -0.01 pts | +0.16 pts 56% up · n 39 · normal +0.03 pts | +0.20 pts 51% up · n 37 · normal -0.25 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | 0.00 pts 38% up · n 39 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.30 pts 31% up · n 39 · normal -0.30 pts | -1.00 pts 35% up · n 37 · normal -0.70 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2026-06-02 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 2025-07-03 · true for 19 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +19.2%
- 2024-01-24 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +25.7%
- 2023-06-12 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +23.9%
- 2021-01-25 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +13.0%
- 2020-12-23 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +28.1%
- 2020-06-08 · true for 56 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +30.8%
- 2019-03-21 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -19.3%
- 2012-02-23 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.2%
- 2009-09-21 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.1%
- 2009-08-12 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +7.7%
- 2009-05-26 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.3%
- 2003-05-13 · true for 25 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.4%
- 2003-01-03 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +22.0%
- 2001-12-06 · true for 19 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -21.8%
- 2001-07-02 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -23.3%
- 2000-08-22 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -22.2%
- 2000-07-14 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -19.5%
- 1999-11-05 · true for 99 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +4.1%
- 1999-07-19 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +6.1%
- 1998-11-27 · true for 56 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +18.8%
- 1998-03-24 · true for 9 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +14.7%
- 1997-07-02 · true for 22 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +26.8%
- 1995-09-11 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +15.7%
- 1995-07-14 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.4%
- 1993-01-14 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +8.9%
- 1992-02-26 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +6.5%
- 1992-01-09 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +2.7%
- 1991-01-29 · true for 64 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +22.2%
- 1988-02-29 · true for 12 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.9%
- 1987-03-11 · true for 19 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -9.1%
- 1983-06-13 · true for 11 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -7.7%
- 1983-04-25 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -0.5%
- 1982-10-13 · true for 62 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +24.3%
- 1980-06-25 · true for 62 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +13.8%
- 1980-01-28 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +14.2%
- 1978-06-05 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +0.7%
- 1976-03-08 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +0.7%
- 1975-03-04 · true for 37 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +19.7%
- 1972-02-22 · true for 7 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +8.9%
- 40 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
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