What happened last time? › Stock markets
What happens after the Nikkei enters a bear market (down 20% from its high)?
It has happened 32 times since 1965. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 27 of 32 times, with a median move of +13.2%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +9.6%, up 73% of the time.
Nikkei 225 more than 20% below its 1-year high. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +2.6% 69% up · n 32 · normal +1.0% | +13.2% 84% up · n 32 · normal +9.6% | +28.9% 84% up · n 32 · normal +28.3% |
| Gold | +1.3% 53% up · n 32 · normal 0.0% | +1.4% 53% up · n 32 · normal +4.1% | +4.6% 53% up · n 32 · normal +13.2% |
| Oil | 0.0% 44% up · n 32 · normal 0.0% | +7.8% 69% up · n 32 · normal +1.9% | +46.8% 78% up · n 32 · normal +16.0% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.06 pts 38% up · n 32 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.32 pts 34% up · n 32 · normal +0.04 pts | -0.42 pts 38% up · n 32 · normal -0.21 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | +0.07 pts 59% up · n 32 · normal -0.01 pts | -0.13 pts 47% up · n 32 · normal +0.13 pts | +0.15 pts 53% up · n 32 · normal -0.07 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | 0.00 pts 45% up · n 31 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.05 pts 50% up · n 32 · normal -0.30 pts | -0.35 pts 38% up · n 32 · normal -0.60 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2020-03-12 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +59.0%
- 2018-12-26 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +31.3%
- 2016-01-20 · true for 87 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +21.7%
- 2013-06-13 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +18.3%
- 2011-08-22 · true for 68 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +25.7%
- 2011-03-15 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +8.8%
- 2010-08-24 · true for 8 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.0%
- 2008-01-07 · true for 410 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -34.0%
- 2002-06-21 · true for 204 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +0.7%
- 2000-07-24 · true for 430 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -20.0%
- 2000-05-22 · true for 11 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -6.5%
- 1998-12-22 · true for 15 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +19.3%
- 1998-03-30 · true for 127 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +18.9%
- 1998-02-24 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +21.6%
- 1997-10-13 · true for 57 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +2.8%
- 1997-01-09 · true for 37 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +22.9%
- 1995-02-27 · true for 109 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +33.8%
- 1993-11-26 · true for 7 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -2.3%
- 1991-12-11 · true for 283 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.1%
- 1990-07-27 · true for 247 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.8%
- 1990-06-25 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +5.2%
- 1990-03-20 · true for 34 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.7%
- 1988-01-04 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +7.6%
- 1987-11-11 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +13.1%
- 1975-01-06 · true for 15 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +31.6%
- 1974-10-02 · true for 39 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +32.2%
- 1973-12-07 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -32.6%
- 1971-08-23 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +13.3%
- 1970-11-27 · true for 28 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.0%
- 1970-09-28 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +16.6%
- 1970-05-15 · true for 9 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +32.9%
- 1965-07-12 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +1.4%
- 32 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
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