What happened last time? › Stock markets
What happens after the Nikkei falls 10% in a month?
It has happened 64 times since 1965. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 45 of 64 times, with a median move of +12.9%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +9.6%, up 73% of the time.
Nikkei 225 down more than 10% over 30 days. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +2.4% 63% up · n 64 · normal +1.0% | +12.9% 70% up · n 64 · normal +9.6% | +33.8% 73% up · n 64 · normal +28.4% |
| Gold | +1.1% 59% up · n 64 · normal 0.0% | +7.4% 58% up · n 64 · normal +4.2% | +15.7% 66% up · n 64 · normal +13.3% |
| Oil | 0.0% 45% up · n 64 · normal 0.0% | +3.7% 56% up · n 64 · normal +1.9% | +25.8% 63% up · n 64 · normal +16.2% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.06 pts 41% up · n 64 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.49 pts 33% up · n 64 · normal +0.03 pts | -0.65 pts 27% up · n 64 · normal -0.21 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | 0.00 pts 49% up · n 63 · normal -0.01 pts | -0.14 pts 45% up · n 64 · normal +0.13 pts | -0.18 pts 47% up · n 64 · normal -0.07 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | 0.00 pts 38% up · n 60 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.05 pts 48% up · n 64 · normal -0.30 pts | -0.15 pts 47% up · n 64 · normal -0.60 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2020-03-06 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +29.3%
- 2018-12-26 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +31.3%
- 2018-10-25 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.7%
- 2018-02-09 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +3.4%
- 2016-06-24 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +19.7%
- 2016-01-12 · true for 9 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.4%
- 2015-08-25 · true for 14 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.5%
- 2014-02-03 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.7%
- 2013-06-12 · true for 10 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +19.7%
- 2012-05-18 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +28.7%
- 2011-08-08 · true for 11 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +25.2%
- 2011-03-15 · true for 10 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +8.8%
- 2010-05-21 · true for 11 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +22.6%
- 2009-07-13 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +21.6%
- 2009-01-26 · true for 11 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +30.6%
- 2008-09-16 · true for 36 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -11.9%
- 2008-07-08 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -30.9%
- 2008-03-17 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -39.0%
- 2008-01-10 · true for 13 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -37.3%
- 2007-11-12 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -37.5%
- 2007-08-16 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -8.0%
- 2006-05-23 · true for 9 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +21.1%
- 2004-05-13 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +5.3%
- 2003-11-17 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.6%
- 2002-08-02 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +13.4%
- 2002-06-19 · true for 8 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -2.5%
- 2002-02-04 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -22.5%
- 2001-08-31 · true for 16 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -19.2%
- 2001-07-23 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -33.0%
- 2001-06-20 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: -17.7%
- 2001-03-02 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -8.3%
- 2001-01-10 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -11.9%
- 2000-08-04 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: -17.0%
- 2000-04-26 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -15.5%
- 1999-01-08 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +13.0%
- 1998-08-17 · true for 11 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +24.0%
- 1997-12-22 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +26.2%
- 1997-11-07 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +23.0%
- 1997-08-27 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +14.1%
- 1997-01-09 · true for 9 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +22.9%
- 1995-06-09 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +27.5%
- 1995-03-01 · true for 9 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +31.9%
- 1993-11-09 · true for 12 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +1.1%
- 1992-08-10 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.2%
- 1992-06-17 · true for 10 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.5%
- 1992-04-01 · true for 19 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.4%
- 1991-12-02 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.9%
- 1991-07-08 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +8.3%
- 1990-11-29 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +18.6%
- 1990-08-06 · true for 36 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.8%
- 1990-03-05 · true for 25 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.9%
- 1987-10-20 · true for 16 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.9%
- 1986-10-22 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +5.1%
- 1984-06-01 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +23.7%
- 1982-03-16 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +37.1%
- 1977-11-25 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -0.9%
- 1974-10-07 · true for 11 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +33.6%
- 1974-08-22 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.8%
- 1973-12-10 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -31.3%
- 1973-09-21 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: -34.6%
The 60 most recent of 64.
Open this in the lab and play one of 24 episodes- 64 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
More about stock markets
- What happens after the S&P 500 falls 10% in a month?
- What happens after the S&P 500 falls 5% in a week?
- What happens after the S&P 500 enters a bear market (down 20% from its high)?
- What happens after the S&P 500 falls 30% from its high?
- What happens after the S&P 500 rises 20% in three months?
- What happens when the S&P 500 hits an all-time high?
- What happens when the S&P 500 is 10% below its 200-day average?
- What happens after the Dow falls 10% in a month?