What happened last time? › Stock markets
What happens after the Nikkei falls 30% from its high?
It has happened 13 times since 1965. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 7 of 13 times, with a median move of +10.1%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +9.6%, up 73% of the time.
Nikkei 225 more than 30% below its 1-year high. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | -1.3% 46% up · n 13 · normal +1.0% | +10.1% 54% up · n 13 · normal +9.6% | +19.3% 69% up · n 13 · normal +28.3% |
| Gold | +0.5% 54% up · n 13 · normal 0.0% | +5.0% 54% up · n 13 · normal +4.1% | +47.2% 85% up · n 13 · normal +13.2% |
| Oil | +5.2% 69% up · n 13 · normal 0.0% | +0.3% 54% up · n 13 · normal +1.9% | -1.6% 46% up · n 13 · normal +16.0% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.09 pts 31% up · n 13 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.73 pts 31% up · n 13 · normal +0.04 pts | -0.75 pts 23% up · n 13 · normal -0.21 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | +0.06 pts 50% up · n 12 · normal -0.01 pts | -0.66 pts 31% up · n 13 · normal +0.13 pts | -1.13 pts 38% up · n 13 · normal -0.07 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | 0.00 pts 31% up · n 13 · normal 0.00 pts | +1.00 pts 77% up · n 13 · normal -0.30 pts | +0.10 pts 54% up · n 13 · normal -0.60 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2020-03-18 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +63.3%
- 2008-09-05 · true for 205 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -18.2%
- 2008-03-07 · true for 15 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -47.2%
- 2008-01-22 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: -35.9%
- 2003-01-29 · true for 64 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +31.2%
- 2002-11-14 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.2%
- 2002-01-17 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -20.8%
- 2001-07-09 · true for 81 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -20.5%
- 2000-10-27 · true for 92 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -19.9%
- 1995-06-09 · true for 11 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +27.5%
- 1992-04-01 · true for 122 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.4%
- 1991-07-05 · true for 8 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.1%
- 1990-08-13 · true for 129 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.0%
- 13 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
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- What happens after the S&P 500 falls 30% from its high?
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