What happened last time? › Stock markets
What happens after the Nikkei falls 5% in a week?
It has happened 113 times since 1965. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 83 of 113 times, with a median move of +11.5%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +9.6%, up 73% of the time.
Nikkei 225 down more than 5% over a week. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +1.6% 67% up · n 113 · normal +1.0% | +11.5% 73% up · n 113 · normal +9.6% | +31.9% 78% up · n 113 · normal +28.3% |
| Gold | 0.0% 46% up · n 113 · normal 0.0% | +3.2% 58% up · n 113 · normal +4.1% | +13.6% 69% up · n 113 · normal +13.2% |
| Oil | 0.0% 48% up · n 113 · normal 0.0% | +3.2% 54% up · n 113 · normal +1.9% | +13.1% 58% up · n 113 · normal +16.0% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | 0.00 pts 46% up · n 113 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.11 pts 46% up · n 113 · normal +0.04 pts | -0.23 pts 42% up · n 113 · normal -0.21 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | +0.06 pts 52% up · n 111 · normal -0.01 pts | +0.02 pts 50% up · n 113 · normal +0.13 pts | +0.04 pts 50% up · n 113 · normal -0.07 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | 0.00 pts 28% up · n 105 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.30 pts 35% up · n 113 · normal -0.30 pts | -0.70 pts 36% up · n 113 · normal -0.60 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2022-06-15 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.8%
- 2022-04-12 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: -6.9%
- 2022-03-08 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -4.3%
- 2022-01-27 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: -5.9%
- 2021-11-29 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -15.0%
- 2021-10-04 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -11.8%
- 2021-05-13 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -2.2%
- 2021-03-24 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +16.2%
- 2020-06-15 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +38.5%
- 2020-02-27 · true for 17 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +27.9%
- 2019-08-06 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +15.5%
- 2018-12-10 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +18.8%
- 2018-10-11 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +8.9%
- 2018-02-06 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +1.4%
- 2016-11-09 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +19.5%
- 2016-06-15 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.4%
- 2016-04-04 · true for 8 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +14.2%
- 2016-01-07 · true for 9 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.2%
- 2015-08-21 · true for 7 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.8%
- 2014-12-16 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +5.1%
- 2014-10-14 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +6.2%
- 2014-03-14 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.5%
- 2014-01-28 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.7%
- 2013-07-29 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.9%
- 2013-05-28 · true for 9 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.0%
- 2012-04-09 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +13.5%
- 2011-09-26 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +24.0%
- 2011-08-05 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.0%
- 2011-03-14 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.7%
- 2010-06-28 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +20.7%
- 2010-05-07 · true for 7 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +20.6%
- 2009-11-02 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +14.4%
- 2009-10-01 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.3%
- 2009-07-08 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +21.7%
- 2009-01-13 · true for 9 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +31.4%
- 2008-09-05 · true for 30 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -18.2%
- 2007-12-18 · true for 19 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -37.8%
- 2007-10-22 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -36.6%
- 2007-08-01 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -13.5%
- 2007-03-02 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -4.1%
- 2006-07-18 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +25.0%
- 2006-05-16 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.2%
- 2006-01-18 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.6%
- 2005-04-18 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +14.1%
- 2004-05-10 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.3%
- 2003-09-25 · true for 9 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.6%
- 2003-03-10 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +41.3%
- 2003-01-30 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +33.9%
- 2002-11-12 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +19.9%
- 2002-06-17 · true for 17 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -2.4%
- 2002-02-04 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -22.5%
- 2001-11-13 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -22.5%
- 2001-07-06 · true for 7 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -16.9%
- 2001-03-02 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -8.3%
- 2000-12-19 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -12.0%
- 2000-07-28 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: -15.1%
- 2000-04-17 · true for 10 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -15.0%
- 1999-07-26 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +9.4%
- 1998-12-15 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +21.5%
- 1998-08-17 · true for 9 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +24.0%
The 60 most recent of 113.
Open this in the lab and play one of 32 episodes- 113 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
More about stock markets
- What happens after the S&P 500 falls 10% in a month?
- What happens after the S&P 500 falls 5% in a week?
- What happens after the S&P 500 enters a bear market (down 20% from its high)?
- What happens after the S&P 500 falls 30% from its high?
- What happens after the S&P 500 rises 20% in three months?
- What happens when the S&P 500 hits an all-time high?
- What happens when the S&P 500 is 10% below its 200-day average?
- What happens after the Dow falls 10% in a month?