What happened last time? › Stock markets
What happens when the Nikkei hits an all-time high?
It has happened 43 times since 1965. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 28 of 43 times, with a median move of +7.4%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +9.6%, up 73% of the time.
Nikkei 225: % below its all-time high above -0.01. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +1.7% 58% up · n 43 · normal +1.0% | +7.4% 65% up · n 43 · normal +9.6% | +28.5% 88% up · n 43 · normal +28.3% |
| Gold | 0.0% 40% up · n 43 · normal 0.0% | -1.3% 40% up · n 43 · normal +4.1% | +1.4% 51% up · n 43 · normal +13.2% |
| Oil | 0.0% 26% up · n 42 · normal 0.0% | 0.0% 44% up · n 43 · normal +1.9% | +2.9% 51% up · n 43 · normal +16.0% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | +0.12 pts 58% up · n 43 · normal 0.00 pts | +0.49 pts 63% up · n 43 · normal +0.04 pts | -0.47 pts 40% up · n 43 · normal -0.21 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | -0.01 pts 49% up · n 41 · normal -0.01 pts | +0.20 pts 56% up · n 43 · normal +0.13 pts | -0.78 pts 49% up · n 43 · normal -0.07 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | 0.00 pts 36% up · n 39 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.20 pts 35% up · n 43 · normal -0.30 pts | +0.70 pts 56% up · n 43 · normal -0.60 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 1989-11-13 · true for 26 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -6.4%
- 1989-09-26 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -11.4%
- 1989-07-25 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.0%
- 1989-03-29 · true for 18 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.6%
- 1988-11-11 · true for 40 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +26.6%
- 1988-08-02 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +26.6%
- 1988-04-07 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.6%
- 1987-10-08 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -11.5%
- 1987-08-27 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -21.6%
- 1987-01-06 · true for 50 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +2.4%
- 1986-05-02 · true for 38 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +22.7%
- 1986-02-04 · true for 30 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +31.4%
- 1985-12-13 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.8%
- 1985-10-15 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +28.3%
- 1985-05-28 · true for 8 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +31.3%
- 1985-01-08 · true for 26 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +26.8%
- 1984-10-31 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +14.3%
- 1984-03-14 · true for 14 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +13.4%
- 1983-12-20 · true for 19 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +3.2%
- 1983-06-21 · true for 24 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -9.2%
- 1983-03-17 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +6.5%
- 1982-12-06 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.7%
- 1981-08-07 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -21.3%
- 1981-06-15 · true for 9 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -17.9%
- 1981-03-25 · true for 14 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -17.4%
- 1981-01-07 · true for 8 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -12.0%
- 1980-08-25 · true for 23 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -0.0%
- 1980-04-23 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +29.1%
- 1980-01-09 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +22.0%
- 1979-08-03 · true for 15 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.5%
- 1979-04-27 · true for 9 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +3.3%
- 1978-09-05 · true for 42 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +1.8%
- 1978-07-03 · true for 8 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.4%
- 1978-03-28 · true for 8 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +14.1%
- 1972-01-05 · true for 141 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.9%
- 1971-06-15 · true for 18 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +8.0%
- 1970-03-04 · true for 15 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +8.8%
- 1969-10-01 · true for 31 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -8.9%
- 1969-04-02 · true for 19 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -10.9%
- 1969-02-12 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: -16.3%
- 1968-07-29 · true for 27 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -8.4%
- 1965-11-09 · true for 41 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -11.5%
- 1965-01-05 · true for 8 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +9.7%
- 43 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
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