What happened last time? › Stock markets
What happens when the Nikkei is 10% below its 200-day average?
It has happened 43 times since 1965. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 32 of 43 times, with a median move of +12.9%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +9.8%, up 74% of the time.
Nikkei 225: % above its 200-day average below -10. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +3.3% 81% up · n 43 · normal +1.0% | +12.9% 74% up · n 43 · normal +9.8% | +30.5% 79% up · n 43 · normal +28.7% |
| Gold | 0.0% 49% up · n 43 · normal 0.0% | -1.1% 49% up · n 43 · normal +4.6% | +4.3% 60% up · n 43 · normal +13.6% |
| Oil | 0.0% 47% up · n 43 · normal 0.0% | +3.9% 60% up · n 43 · normal +2.4% | +26.0% 70% up · n 43 · normal +17.0% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.05 pts 35% up · n 43 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.29 pts 35% up · n 43 · normal +0.01 pts | -0.30 pts 37% up · n 43 · normal -0.23 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | -0.02 pts 48% up · n 42 · normal -0.01 pts | -0.07 pts 49% up · n 43 · normal +0.09 pts | -0.62 pts 42% up · n 43 · normal -0.13 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | 0.00 pts 34% up · n 41 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.10 pts 49% up · n 43 · normal -0.30 pts | -0.20 pts 42% up · n 43 · normal -0.50 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2022-03-07 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -5.1%
- 2020-03-09 · true for 32 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +41.1%
- 2018-12-26 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +31.3%
- 2016-06-14 · true for 13 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.5%
- 2016-01-12 · true for 56 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.4%
- 2015-09-29 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +15.2%
- 2011-11-10 · true for 13 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.3%
- 2011-08-19 · true for 30 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +26.2%
- 2011-03-15 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +8.8%
- 2010-08-23 · true for 9 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +8.9%
- 2010-07-01 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +30.4%
- 2008-09-05 · true for 157 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -18.2%
- 2008-07-15 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -23.2%
- 2007-11-12 · true for 92 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -37.5%
- 2007-08-17 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: -10.2%
- 2002-07-26 · true for 170 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.1%
- 2001-06-12 · true for 147 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -18.8%
- 2000-07-24 · true for 166 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -20.0%
- 2000-05-22 · true for 10 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -6.5%
- 1999-01-04 · true for 7 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +14.0%
- 1998-08-28 · true for 40 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +31.3%
- 1998-06-15 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +20.8%
- 1998-04-02 · true for 11 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.5%
- 1998-02-24 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +21.6%
- 1997-10-28 · true for 56 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.9%
- 1997-01-07 · true for 55 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +28.0%
- 1995-01-23 · true for 89 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +31.6%
- 1993-11-22 · true for 28 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -2.0%
- 1992-11-17 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +10.9%
- 1991-12-02 · true for 142 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.9%
- 1991-08-19 · true for 8 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.9%
- 1991-07-08 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +8.3%
- 1990-07-30 · true for 133 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +8.8%
- 1990-03-19 · true for 36 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +6.7%
- 1987-12-28 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.7%
- 1987-11-11 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +13.1%
- 1975-01-06 · true for 12 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +31.6%
- 1974-08-26 · true for 50 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.4%
- 1973-11-23 · true for 17 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -30.7%
- 1973-09-21 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -34.6%
- 1970-12-07 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.7%
- 1970-05-25 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +41.6%
- 1967-11-20 · true for 15 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.8%
- 43 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
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