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What happens after the Nikkei rises 20% in three months?
It has happened 27 times since 1965. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 17 of 27 times, with a median move of +7.6%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +9.7%, up 73% of the time.
Nikkei 225 up more than 20% over 3 months. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +1.1% 63% up · n 27 · normal +1.0% | +7.6% 63% up · n 27 · normal +9.7% | +13.0% 63% up · n 27 · normal +28.5% |
| Gold | +0.8% 59% up · n 27 · normal 0.0% | +8.5% 70% up · n 27 · normal +4.2% | +13.5% 78% up · n 27 · normal +13.5% |
| Oil | 0.0% 44% up · n 27 · normal 0.0% | +12.5% 67% up · n 27 · normal +2.1% | +38.1% 74% up · n 27 · normal +16.4% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | +0.13 pts 67% up · n 27 · normal 0.00 pts | +0.70 pts 81% up · n 27 · normal +0.03 pts | +0.70 pts 67% up · n 27 · normal -0.22 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | -0.01 pts 40% up · n 25 · normal -0.01 pts | +0.99 pts 67% up · n 27 · normal +0.12 pts | +1.71 pts 67% up · n 27 · normal -0.07 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | -0.10 pts 20% up · n 25 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.60 pts 11% up · n 27 · normal -0.30 pts | -0.80 pts 37% up · n 27 · normal -0.50 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2021-01-13 · true for 15 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +22.3%
- 2020-06-11 · true for 12 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +41.5%
- 2013-01-04 · true for 90 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +24.9%
- 2012-03-15 · true for 8 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.3%
- 2009-05-19 · true for 24 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +22.8%
- 2008-06-16 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: -33.0%
- 2005-11-28 · true for 26 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.3%
- 2003-07-03 · true for 42 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +14.2%
- 2002-05-08 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -15.5%
- 1999-04-05 · true for 19 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +13.1%
- 1995-09-08 · true for 17 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +14.5%
- 1994-02-28 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +4.3%
- 1993-04-13 · true for 30 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -0.7%
- 1991-04-17 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +6.6%
- 1988-03-29 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.4%
- 1987-04-06 · true for 32 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -14.4%
- 1987-01-21 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -9.2%
- 1986-03-31 · true for 33 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +22.1%
- 1975-04-09 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +22.3%
- 1972-11-29 · true for 7 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -16.5%
- 1972-09-25 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: 0.0%
- 1972-07-25 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +1.9%
- 1972-05-31 · true for 15 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -4.2%
- 1972-01-12 · true for 46 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.1%
- 1971-03-26 · true for 9 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.6%
- 1968-09-19 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -6.3%
- 1965-10-12 · true for 7 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -15.7%
- 27 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
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