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What happens after the Russell 2000 enters a bear market (down 20% from its high)?
It has happened 20 times since 1996. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 10 of 20 times, with a median move of +2.2%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +11.7%, up 77% of the time.
Russell 2000 more than 20% below its 1-year high. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +1.3% 65% up · n 20 · normal +1.3% | +2.2% 50% up · n 20 · normal +11.7% | +8.4% 68% up · n 19 · normal +30.0% |
| Gold | -0.5% 45% up · n 20 · normal +0.4% | +5.2% 70% up · n 20 · normal +8.5% | +37.1% 84% up · n 19 · normal +36.5% |
| Oil | +4.1% 60% up · n 20 · normal +1.0% | +6.8% 55% up · n 20 · normal +6.2% | +19.8% 68% up · n 19 · normal +23.1% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | +0.01 pts 50% up · n 20 · normal -0.01 pts | -0.23 pts 45% up · n 20 · normal -0.12 pts | -0.31 pts 37% up · n 19 · normal -0.28 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | -0.12 pts 28% up · n 18 · normal -0.00 pts | -0.89 pts 25% up · n 20 · normal +0.06 pts | -0.78 pts 26% up · n 19 · normal +0.06 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | 0.00 pts 32% up · n 19 · normal 0.00 pts | +0.20 pts 55% up · n 20 · normal -0.30 pts | +0.50 pts 63% up · n 19 · normal -0.50 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2025-04-03 · true for 14 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +22.0%
- 2022-04-22 · true for 156 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -3.2%
- 2022-01-27 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -5.9%
- 2020-03-09 · true for 55 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +41.1%
- 2018-12-17 · true for 13 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +25.4%
- 2016-01-13 · true for 31 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +20.1%
- 2011-11-23 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +19.7%
- 2011-08-08 · true for 30 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +25.2%
- 2010-07-06 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +30.3%
- 2008-09-17 · true for 242 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -7.9%
- 2008-07-02 · true for 9 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -28.9%
- 2008-03-03 · true for 15 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -47.7%
- 2008-01-17 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -36.2%
- 2002-07-11 · true for 208 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.6%
- 2001-09-17 · true for 15 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -15.9%
- 2001-02-21 · true for 24 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -13.9%
- 2000-10-10 · true for 50 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -22.1%
- 2000-04-14 · true for 14 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -12.8%
- 1999-02-17 · true for 9 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +13.4%
- 1998-08-25 · true for 59 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +26.4%
- 20 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
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