What happened last time? › Stock markets
What happens after the Russell 2000 falls 10% in a month?
It has happened 29 times since 1997. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 15 of 29 times, with a median move of +7.3%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +11.7%, up 77% of the time.
Russell 2000 down more than 10% over 30 days. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +0.9% 55% up · n 29 · normal +1.3% | +7.3% 52% up · n 29 · normal +11.7% | +33.2% 74% up · n 27 · normal +29.9% |
| Gold | +0.3% 59% up · n 29 · normal +0.4% | +10.3% 79% up · n 29 · normal +8.5% | +47.7% 93% up · n 27 · normal +36.6% |
| Oil | -0.3% 48% up · n 29 · normal +1.1% | +0.8% 52% up · n 29 · normal +6.3% | +12.8% 70% up · n 27 · normal +23.3% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | 0.00 pts 48% up · n 29 · normal -0.01 pts | -0.30 pts 41% up · n 29 · normal -0.12 pts | -0.52 pts 37% up · n 27 · normal -0.29 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | -0.00 pts 41% up · n 27 · normal -0.00 pts | -0.58 pts 38% up · n 29 · normal +0.09 pts | -1.17 pts 37% up · n 27 · normal +0.06 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | 0.00 pts 33% up · n 27 · normal 0.00 pts | +0.30 pts 62% up · n 29 · normal -0.30 pts | +0.60 pts 63% up · n 27 · normal -0.50 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2025-03-07 · true for 10 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.8%
- 2023-10-03 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +35.0%
- 2023-03-15 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +32.3%
- 2022-09-22 · true for 7 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.0%
- 2022-04-28 · true for 12 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -2.8%
- 2022-01-21 · true for 7 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -9.7%
- 2021-12-03 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -10.3%
- 2020-02-28 · true for 25 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +29.0%
- 2018-12-21 · true for 8 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +33.3%
- 2018-10-11 · true for 8 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +8.9%
- 2016-01-15 · true for 10 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +21.0%
- 2011-08-04 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.9%
- 2010-05-20 · true for 7 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +24.4%
- 2009-01-20 · true for 22 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +41.3%
- 2008-09-29 · true for 39 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -4.1%
- 2008-07-07 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: -29.6%
- 2008-01-08 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -34.8%
- 2007-11-26 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: -39.1%
- 2007-08-03 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -12.1%
- 2004-05-10 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +7.3%
- 2003-02-12 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +40.7%
- 2002-09-23 · true for 10 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +23.4%
- 2002-06-13 · true for 23 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -2.1%
- 2001-09-17 · true for 15 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -15.9%
- 2001-03-14 · true for 9 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -1.2%
- 2000-11-30 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -13.3%
- 2000-10-10 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -22.1%
- 2000-04-03 · true for 17 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -26.5%
- 1998-08-04 · true for 33 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +21.8%
- 29 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
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