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What happens after the Russell 2000 falls 30% from its high?
It has happened 9 times since 1996. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 9 of 9 times, with a median move of +23.9%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +11.7%, up 77% of the time.
Russell 2000 more than 30% below its 1-year high. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +4.9% 78% up · n 9 · normal +1.3% | +23.9% 100% up · n 9 · normal +11.7% | +50.8% 100% up · n 9 · normal +30.0% |
| Gold | -2.0% 33% up · n 9 · normal +0.4% | +10.4% 89% up · n 9 · normal +8.5% | +42.3% 78% up · n 9 · normal +36.5% |
| Oil | +0.2% 56% up · n 9 · normal +1.0% | +13.2% 56% up · n 9 · normal +6.2% | +92.9% 67% up · n 9 · normal +23.1% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.15 pts 44% up · n 9 · normal -0.01 pts | +0.38 pts 78% up · n 9 · normal -0.12 pts | +0.46 pts 67% up · n 9 · normal -0.28 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | -0.07 pts 33% up · n 9 · normal -0.00 pts | -0.50 pts 44% up · n 9 · normal +0.06 pts | +1.04 pts 67% up · n 9 · normal +0.06 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | 0.00 pts 14% up · n 7 · normal 0.00 pts | +0.10 pts 67% up · n 9 · normal -0.30 pts | +0.10 pts 56% up · n 9 · normal -0.50 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2022-09-23 · true for 12 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.0%
- 2022-06-14 · true for 7 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.1%
- 2020-03-12 · true for 22 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +59.0%
- 2008-10-07 · true for 197 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +6.2%
- 2003-02-06 · true for 28 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +36.3%
- 2002-09-19 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +22.9%
- 2002-07-23 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +23.9%
- 1998-10-05 · true for 10 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +31.6%
- 1998-08-31 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +37.9%
- 9 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Few episodes: read the ranges and the interval, not just the median.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
More about stock markets
- What happens after the S&P 500 falls 10% in a month?
- What happens after the S&P 500 falls 5% in a week?
- What happens after the S&P 500 enters a bear market (down 20% from its high)?
- What happens after the S&P 500 falls 30% from its high?
- What happens after the S&P 500 rises 20% in three months?
- What happens when the S&P 500 hits an all-time high?
- What happens when the S&P 500 is 10% below its 200-day average?
- What happens after the Dow falls 10% in a month?