What happened last time? › Stock markets
What happens when the Russell 2000 hits an all-time high?
It has happened 35 times since 1996. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 24 of 32 times, with a median move of +8.0%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +11.7%, up 77% of the time.
Russell 2000: % below its all-time high above -0.01. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +1.2% 69% up · n 35 · normal +1.3% | +8.0% 75% up · n 32 · normal +11.7% | +26.7% 77% up · n 31 · normal +30.0% |
| Gold | -1.2% 43% up · n 35 · normal +0.4% | +2.3% 56% up · n 32 · normal +8.5% | +34.0% 74% up · n 31 · normal +36.5% |
| Oil | -1.2% 49% up · n 35 · normal +1.0% | +6.2% 56% up · n 32 · normal +6.2% | -0.5% 48% up · n 31 · normal +23.1% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | +0.06 pts 57% up · n 35 · normal -0.01 pts | -0.04 pts 47% up · n 32 · normal -0.12 pts | -0.71 pts 32% up · n 31 · normal -0.28 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | -0.02 pts 42% up · n 33 · normal -0.00 pts | +0.22 pts 63% up · n 32 · normal +0.06 pts | -0.10 pts 48% up · n 31 · normal +0.06 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | 0.00 pts 32% up · n 31 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.50 pts 13% up · n 32 · normal -0.30 pts | -0.70 pts 42% up · n 31 · normal -0.50 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2026-08-04 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 2026-04-16 · true for 17 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 2025-12-04 · true for 11 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 2025-09-18 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.4%
- 2021-11-02 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -18.8%
- 2020-11-13 · true for 26 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +30.6%
- 2018-08-21 · true for 7 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +2.1%
- 2018-05-16 · true for 14 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +5.7%
- 2017-11-21 · true for 17 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +2.0%
- 2017-09-22 · true for 9 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.1%
- 2017-06-09 · true for 8 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +14.3%
- 2017-04-26 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +11.7%
- 2017-02-10 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +13.1%
- 2016-11-14 · true for 14 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +19.2%
- 2015-06-18 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -2.4%
- 2015-02-13 · true for 14 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -11.1%
- 2014-12-26 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -1.3%
- 2014-02-26 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +14.4%
- 2013-09-17 · true for 25 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.4%
- 2013-05-03 · true for 25 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.5%
- 2013-01-02 · true for 24 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +25.3%
- 2011-04-27 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +3.3%
- 2007-07-12 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -19.9%
- 2007-04-16 · true for 9 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -9.1%
- 2007-01-30 · true for 11 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -5.1%
- 2006-11-14 · true for 7 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +5.6%
- 2006-01-05 · true for 27 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.7%
- 2005-12-01 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.4%
- 2005-07-08 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +4.4%
- 2004-11-09 · true for 13 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +4.9%
- 2004-04-05 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +2.7%
- 1999-12-29 · true for 16 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -8.8%
- 1998-03-11 · true for 15 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +21.5%
- 1997-05-22 · true for 53 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +32.9%
- 1996-12-31 · true for 10 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +31.0%
- 35 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
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