What happened last time? › Stock markets
What happens when the Russell 2000 is 10% below its 200-day average?
It has happened 20 times since 1997. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 12 of 20 times, with a median move of +11.1%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +11.5%, up 77% of the time.
Russell 2000: % above its 200-day average below -10. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | -0.6% 45% up · n 20 · normal +1.3% | +11.1% 60% up · n 20 · normal +11.5% | +25.5% 78% up · n 18 · normal +29.2% |
| Gold | +0.1% 50% up · n 20 · normal +0.5% | +5.3% 85% up · n 20 · normal +9.1% | +41.0% 83% up · n 18 · normal +38.2% |
| Oil | -3.9% 45% up · n 20 · normal +1.1% | -2.6% 50% up · n 20 · normal +7.2% | +4.8% 50% up · n 18 · normal +21.3% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.02 pts 45% up · n 20 · normal -0.01 pts | -0.45 pts 40% up · n 20 · normal -0.09 pts | -0.37 pts 39% up · n 18 · normal -0.29 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | -0.12 pts 25% up · n 20 · normal -0.00 pts | -1.26 pts 20% up · n 20 · normal +0.16 pts | -1.33 pts 33% up · n 18 · normal +0.01 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | 0.00 pts 40% up · n 20 · normal 0.00 pts | +0.25 pts 60% up · n 20 · normal -0.20 pts | +0.50 pts 61% up · n 18 · normal -0.40 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2025-04-03 · true for 18 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +22.0%
- 2023-10-25 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +38.8%
- 2022-09-22 · true for 14 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.0%
- 2022-04-22 · true for 63 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -3.2%
- 2022-01-20 · true for 17 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -11.4%
- 2020-03-09 · true for 50 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +41.1%
- 2018-12-07 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +19.5%
- 2016-01-07 · true for 36 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.2%
- 2015-09-28 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +14.8%
- 2011-11-22 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.1%
- 2011-08-05 · true for 47 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.0%
- 2008-10-02 · true for 143 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -8.0%
- 2008-07-07 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: -29.6%
- 2008-01-04 · true for 49 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -34.0%
- 2002-07-10 · true for 120 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.4%
- 2001-09-17 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -15.9%
- 2001-03-16 · true for 12 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +1.4%
- 2000-11-22 · true for 8 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -14.0%
- 2000-10-12 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -17.9%
- 1998-08-04 · true for 56 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +21.8%
- 20 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
More about stock markets
- What happens after the S&P 500 falls 10% in a month?
- What happens after the S&P 500 falls 5% in a week?
- What happens after the S&P 500 enters a bear market (down 20% from its high)?
- What happens after the S&P 500 falls 30% from its high?
- What happens after the S&P 500 rises 20% in three months?
- What happens when the S&P 500 hits an all-time high?
- What happens when the S&P 500 is 10% below its 200-day average?
- What happens after the Dow falls 10% in a month?