What happened last time? › Stock markets
What happens after the Russell 2000 rises 20% in three months?
It has happened 18 times since 1997. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 13 of 17 times, with a median move of +17.3%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +11.6%, up 77% of the time.
Russell 2000 up more than 20% over 3 months. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +2.1% 78% up · n 18 · normal +1.3% | +17.3% 76% up · n 17 · normal +11.6% | +34.3% 87% up · n 15 · normal +29.8% |
| Gold | +0.9% 56% up · n 18 · normal +0.4% | +8.5% 65% up · n 17 · normal +8.7% | +23.2% 67% up · n 15 · normal +37.1% |
| Oil | +2.2% 61% up · n 18 · normal +1.2% | +14.5% 76% up · n 17 · normal +6.5% | +57.3% 87% up · n 15 · normal +23.0% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | +0.01 pts 56% up · n 18 · normal -0.01 pts | -0.02 pts 47% up · n 17 · normal -0.11 pts | -0.01 pts 47% up · n 15 · normal -0.29 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | -0.06 pts 31% up · n 16 · normal -0.00 pts | +0.81 pts 76% up · n 17 · normal +0.09 pts | +0.89 pts 67% up · n 15 · normal +0.09 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | 0.00 pts 41% up · n 17 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.40 pts 29% up · n 17 · normal -0.30 pts | -1.10 pts 13% up · n 15 · normal -0.50 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2026-06-22 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 2025-07-07 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +20.4%
- 2024-01-26 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +24.7%
- 2020-12-04 · true for 62 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +22.7%
- 2020-06-11 · true for 29 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +41.5%
- 2019-03-26 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: -12.2%
- 2013-02-14 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +20.9%
- 2012-02-22 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.7%
- 2010-11-22 · true for 11 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -0.8%
- 2010-04-23 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +9.9%
- 2009-08-12 · true for 19 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.7%
- 2009-05-26 · true for 22 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.3%
- 2004-11-12 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +4.3%
- 2003-05-28 · true for 33 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.6%
- 2001-12-20 · true for 9 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -21.4%
- 2000-01-14 · true for 30 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -10.0%
- 1998-12-31 · true for 12 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +19.5%
- 1997-07-16 · true for 8 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +26.4%
- 18 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
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