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What happens after the S&P 500 falls 20% in a year?
It has happened 28 times since 1928. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 19 of 28 times, with a median move of +9.7%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +9.3%, up 69% of the time.
S&P 500 down more than 20% over a year. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +3.4% 68% up · n 28 · normal +1.0% | +9.7% 68% up · n 28 · normal +9.3% | +23.1% 82% up · n 28 · normal +26.0% |
| Gold | +0.3% 50% up · n 14 · normal 0.0% | +11.8% 79% up · n 14 · normal +2.9% | +43.3% 79% up · n 14 · normal +10.4% |
| Oil | 0.0% 36% up · n 14 · normal 0.0% | -0.3% 36% up · n 14 · normal 0.0% | +27.6% 57% up · n 14 · normal +8.9% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.08 pts 43% up · n 14 · normal +0.01 pts | -0.02 pts 50% up · n 14 · normal +0.09 pts | -0.75 pts 29% up · n 14 · normal +0.06 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | 0.00 pts 46% up · n 28 · normal 0.00 pts | -1.46 pts 32% up · n 28 · normal -0.01 pts | -0.89 pts 43% up · n 28 · normal -0.01 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | +0.10 pts 73% up · n 15 · normal 0.00 pts | +1.30 pts 67% up · n 15 · normal -0.20 pts | +0.90 pts 73% up · n 15 · normal -0.40 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2022-12-27 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +24.9%
- 2022-11-03 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +17.2%
- 2020-03-23 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +74.8%
- 2008-09-17 · true for 238 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -7.9%
- 2008-07-14 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -26.3%
- 2002-06-21 · true for 144 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +0.7%
- 2001-07-11 · true for 57 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -21.4%
- 2001-03-16 · true for 19 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +1.4%
- 1988-08-10 · true for 14 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +33.0%
- 1982-08-05 · true for 8 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +53.8%
- 1974-07-09 · true for 143 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.3%
- 1973-12-03 · true for 16 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -28.5%
- 1970-04-28 · true for 56 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +30.5%
- 1962-10-23 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +36.5%
- 1949-06-13 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +42.1%
- 1947-04-08 · true for 54 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +2.7%
- 1942-03-11 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +38.0%
- 1941-04-08 · true for 27 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -17.5%
- 1941-02-14 · true for 7 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -9.5%
- 1940-09-11 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -2.1%
- 1940-05-25 · true for 8 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +3.1%
- 1937-10-05 · true for 283 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +0.1%
- 1935-01-30 · true for 37 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +55.9%
- 1934-09-11 · true for 8 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +36.7%
- 1934-07-26 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +29.1%
- 1933-01-16 · true for 23 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +51.4%
- 1930-06-16 · true for 727 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -33.6%
- 1929-11-13 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: -6.2%
- 28 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
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