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What happens after the S&P 500 falls 50% from its all-time high?
It has happened 8 times since 1927. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 3 of 8 times, with a median move of -13.1%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +9.4%, up 69% of the time.
S&P 500 more than 50% below its all-time high. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +0.2% 50% up · n 8 · normal +1.1% | -13.1% 38% up · n 8 · normal +9.4% | -11.5% 50% up · n 8 · normal +25.7% |
| Gold | +5.0% 50% up · n 2 · normal 0.0% | +34.4% 100% up · n 2 · normal +2.9% | +103.8% 100% up · n 2 · normal +10.4% |
| Oil | -1.0% 50% up · n 2 · normal 0.0% | +79.3% 100% up · n 2 · normal 0.0% | +130.3% 100% up · n 2 · normal +8.9% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.59 pts 0% up · n 2 · normal +0.01 pts | +0.59 pts 100% up · n 2 · normal +0.09 pts | -0.97 pts 0% up · n 2 · normal +0.06 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | -0.22 pts 50% up · n 8 · normal 0.00 pts | -4.10 pts 25% up · n 8 · normal -0.01 pts | -0.43 pts 38% up · n 8 · normal -0.04 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | +0.20 pts 67% up · n 3 · normal 0.00 pts | +2.60 pts 100% up · n 3 · normal -0.20 pts | +0.70 pts 67% up · n 3 · normal -0.40 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2009-02-19 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +42.4%
- 2008-11-20 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +45.0%
- 1948-07-19 · true for 306 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -5.0%
- 1946-09-03 · true for 474 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +2.2%
- 1937-08-27 · true for 2411 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -21.3%
- 1937-05-13 · true for 25 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -34.4%
- 1931-04-17 · true for 1596 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -59.2%
- 1930-11-10 · true for 32 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -27.4%
- 8 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Few episodes: read the ranges and the interval, not just the median.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
More about stock markets
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- What happens after the S&P 500 falls 5% in a week?
- What happens after the S&P 500 enters a bear market (down 20% from its high)?
- What happens after the S&P 500 falls 30% from its high?
- What happens after the S&P 500 rises 20% in three months?
- What happens when the S&P 500 hits an all-time high?
- What happens when the S&P 500 is 10% below its 200-day average?
- What happens after the Dow falls 10% in a month?