What happened last time? › Stock markets
What happens after the S&P 500 rises 30% in a year?
It has happened 53 times since 1928. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 40 of 52 times, with a median move of +10.3%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +9.3%, up 69% of the time.
S&P 500 up more than 30% over a year. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +1.0% 57% up · n 53 · normal +1.0% | +10.3% 77% up · n 52 · normal +9.3% | +21.2% 82% up · n 50 · normal +26.0% |
| Gold | 0.0% 45% up · n 40 · normal 0.0% | +0.1% 51% up · n 39 · normal +2.9% | 0.0% 43% up · n 37 · normal +10.4% |
| Oil | 0.0% 33% up · n 40 · normal 0.0% | 0.0% 49% up · n 39 · normal 0.0% | +9.5% 54% up · n 37 · normal +8.9% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | +0.09 pts 65% up · n 43 · normal +0.01 pts | +0.11 pts 52% up · n 42 · normal +0.09 pts | +0.23 pts 65% up · n 40 · normal +0.06 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | 0.00 pts 42% up · n 52 · normal 0.00 pts | +0.05 pts 52% up · n 52 · normal -0.01 pts | +0.43 pts 58% up · n 50 · normal -0.01 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | -0.10 pts 26% up · n 43 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.50 pts 16% up · n 45 · normal -0.20 pts | -1.30 pts 26% up · n 43 · normal -0.40 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2026-04-06 · true for 15 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 2024-09-20 · true for 58 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.9%
- 2024-03-08 · true for 14 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.6%
- 2021-03-01 · true for 160 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.4%
- 2019-12-20 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.2%
- 2013-12-30 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +13.0%
- 2013-11-14 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +13.9%
- 2012-10-02 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +17.2%
- 2011-07-01 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +1.7%
- 2010-01-12 · true for 68 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +13.2%
- 2009-11-17 · true for 7 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +6.1%
- 2004-01-22 · true for 43 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +2.1%
- 2003-10-07 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +9.9%
- 1999-08-31 · true for 19 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +13.8%
- 1998-12-23 · true for 12 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +18.7%
- 1998-02-26 · true for 63 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +18.1%
- 1997-06-12 · true for 113 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +24.4%
- 1995-11-21 · true for 80 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +23.9%
- 1992-01-03 · true for 10 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +3.9%
- 1991-10-16 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +4.3%
- 1990-01-03 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: -10.3%
- 1989-07-27 · true for 29 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +3.3%
- 1987-07-14 · true for 53 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -13.3%
- 1987-04-06 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: -14.4%
- 1987-01-21 · true for 12 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -9.2%
- 1986-08-13 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +36.2%
- 1986-03-13 · true for 54 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +24.3%
- 1985-12-16 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.9%
- 1983-02-14 · true for 163 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +5.2%
- 1981-03-17 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -18.5%
- 1980-10-20 · true for 15 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -9.3%
- 1975-11-18 · true for 49 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.6%
- 1975-09-29 · true for 9 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +24.6%
- 1971-08-16 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +13.5%
- 1971-04-28 · true for 43 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +2.2%
- 1967-10-06 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +6.6%
- 1963-10-01 · true for 11 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.6%
- 1963-06-21 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.1%
- 1961-12-04 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -13.0%
- 1961-10-25 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: -20.0%
- 1958-10-21 · true for 138 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.3%
- 1956-03-12 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -7.2%
- 1954-09-07 · true for 304 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +43.0%
- 1951-07-13 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +13.6%
- 1951-02-16 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +7.8%
- 1950-05-31 · true for 18 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +14.6%
- 1946-03-25 · true for 22 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -16.9%
- 1945-10-31 · true for 75 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -10.9%
- 1943-03-05 · true for 180 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.7%
- 1939-03-29 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +1.8%
- 1935-09-07 · true for 364 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +37.5%
- 1933-04-24 · true for 270 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +39.1%
- 1928-12-29 · true for 205 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -13.2%
- 53 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
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- What happens after the S&P 500 falls 30% from its high?
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- What happens when the S&P 500 is 10% below its 200-day average?
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