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What happens when the stock market is very calm (S&P 500 volatility below 8%)?

It has happened 146 times since 1928. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 107 of 145 times, with a median move of +10.0%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +9.4%, up 69% of the time.

S&P 500: volatility (annualised %, 21 days) below 8. Not true on 2026-09-25.

What came next

Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.

Every time it happened

• 2026-09-02 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: –
• 2025-09-23 · true for 13 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.8%
• 2025-07-18 · true for 10 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +18.4%
• 2024-12-06 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.8%
• 2024-06-14 · true for 16 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.0%
• 2023-12-14 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +28.2%
• 2023-08-01 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +20.7%
• 2021-11-09 · true for 10 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -20.0%
• 2021-08-19 · true for 8 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -4.0%
• 2021-06-15 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -10.8%
• 2020-08-28 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +28.5%
• 2019-11-06 · true for 53 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +14.1%
• 2019-07-05 · true for 15 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +4.7%
• 2019-04-23 · true for 10 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -4.6%
• 2018-08-06 · true for 42 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +1.1%
• 2017-09-18 · true for 92 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.0%
• 2016-12-07 · true for 141 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.7%
• 2016-10-27 · true for 7 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +21.0%
• 2016-08-01 · true for 28 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +14.1%
• 2015-03-05 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: -4.8%
• 2014-11-20 · true for 13 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +1.8%
• 2014-08-29 · true for 18 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -0.7%
• 2014-05-13 · true for 34 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.6%
• 2013-12-10 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.4%
• 2013-09-26 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +16.7%
• 2013-07-24 · true for 16 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.9%
• 2013-03-28 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +18.4%
• 2013-02-01 · true for 9 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.8%
• 2012-10-12 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +19.2%
• 2012-09-04 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.7%
• 2012-02-02 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +14.2%
• 2011-04-19 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +5.5%
• 2010-12-31 · true for 19 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -0.0%
• 2010-03-24 · true for 16 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.2%
• 2007-04-20 · true for 13 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -6.3%
• 2006-08-28 · true for 102 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.0%
• 2006-03-29 · true for 11 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +9.2%
• 2005-11-29 · true for 19 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.3%
• 2005-06-14 · true for 14 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +2.2%
• 2004-12-31 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +3.0%
• 2004-09-17 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +9.7%
• 2004-07-14 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.3%
• 1996-10-04 · true for 23 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +37.6%
• 1996-06-19 · true for 11 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +35.7%
• 1995-08-10 · true for 70 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +18.8%
• 1995-01-04 · true for 90 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +34.1%
• 1994-07-26 · true for 30 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +23.9%
• 1994-06-08 · true for 12 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.5%
• 1994-03-23 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +5.9%
• 1993-08-04 · true for 109 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +2.2%
• 1993-06-25 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -1.1%
• 1993-05-11 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -0.6%
• 1992-11-10 · true for 58 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.8%
• 1992-08-18 · true for 13 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +8.2%
• 1992-03-26 · true for 7 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +9.8%
• 1991-09-27 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.4%
• 1989-09-25 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -10.4%
• 1989-02-02 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.5%
• 1988-10-04 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +31.9%
• 1985-11-05 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +28.2%

The 60 most recent of 146.

• 146 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
• Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
• Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
• How these numbers are made.

More about stock markets

• What happens after the S&P 500 falls 10% in a month?
• What happens after the S&P 500 falls 5% in a week?
• What happens after the S&P 500 enters a bear market (down 20% from its high)?
• What happens after the S&P 500 falls 30% from its high?
• What happens after the S&P 500 rises 20% in three months?
• What happens when the S&P 500 hits an all-time high?
• What happens when the S&P 500 is 10% below its 200-day average?
• What happens after the Dow falls 10% in a month?