What happened last time? › Events
What happens to stocks after a midterm election?
It has happened 34 times since 1886. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 22 of 24 times, with a median move of +13.6%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +9.4%, up 69% of the time.
a midterm election in the last 30 days. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +1.4% 67% up · n 24 · normal +1.1% | +13.6% 92% up · n 24 · normal +9.4% | +29.7% 83% up · n 24 · normal +25.7% |
| Gold | +1.0% 63% up · n 16 · normal 0.0% | +7.3% 63% up · n 16 · normal +2.9% | +4.3% 50% up · n 16 · normal +10.4% |
| Oil | 0.0% 38% up · n 16 · normal 0.0% | +2.0% 50% up · n 16 · normal 0.0% | +19.3% 63% up · n 16 · normal +8.9% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.13 pts 28% up · n 18 · normal +0.01 pts | +0.27 pts 61% up · n 18 · normal +0.09 pts | -0.02 pts 44% up · n 18 · normal +0.06 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | +0.01 pts 52% up · n 27 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.42 pts 41% up · n 27 · normal -0.00 pts | +0.58 pts 59% up · n 27 · normal -0.04 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | 0.00 pts 23% up · n 13 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.10 pts 42% up · n 19 · normal -0.20 pts | -0.70 pts 42% up · n 19 · normal -0.40 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2022-11-08 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +14.5%
- 2018-11-06 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.7%
- 2014-11-04 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +4.5%
- 2010-11-02 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +3.7%
- 2006-11-07 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +6.7%
- 2002-11-05 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +14.9%
- 1998-11-03 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +22.0%
- 1994-11-08 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +27.1%
- 1990-11-06 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +25.1%
- 1986-11-04 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +1.1%
- 1982-11-02 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +19.9%
- 1978-11-07 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +6.4%
- 1974-11-05 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +18.7%
- 1970-11-03 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.7%
- 1966-11-09 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.5%
- 1962-11-07 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +24.4%
- 1958-11-05 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.2%
- 1954-11-03 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +33.3%
- 1950-11-08 · true for 23 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +14.9%
- 1946-11-06 · true for 23 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +4.6%
- 1942-11-04 · true for 23 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +23.7%
- 1938-11-09 · true for 23 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -8.8%
- 1934-11-07 · true for 23 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +39.4%
- 1930-11-05 · true for 24 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -35.1%
- 1926-11-03 · true for 24 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1922-11-08 · true for 24 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1918-11-06 · true for 23 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1910-11-09 · true for 24 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1906-11-07 · true for 24 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1902-11-05 · true for 24 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1898-11-09 · true for 24 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1894-11-07 · true for 24 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1890-11-05 · true for 24 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1886-11-03 · true for 24 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 34 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
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