What happened last time? › Economy
What happens when consumer sentiment is below 55?
It has happened 5 times since 1952. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 3 of 3 times, with a median move of +27.2%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +10.6%, up 74% of the time.
Consumer sentiment below 55. This is true today (2026-09-25).
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +5.0% 80% up · n 5 · normal +1.1% | +27.2% 100% up · n 3 · normal +10.6% | +54.1% 100% up · n 2 · normal +27.6% |
| Gold | -3.3% 20% up · n 5 · normal 0.0% | +5.4% 67% up · n 3 · normal +2.9% | +30.1% 50% up · n 2 · normal +10.4% |
| Oil | -2.8% 0% up · n 5 · normal 0.0% | +1.6% 67% up · n 3 · normal 0.0% | -29.7% 0% up · n 2 · normal +8.9% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.13 pts 40% up · n 5 · normal +0.01 pts | +0.61 pts 100% up · n 3 · normal +0.09 pts | +0.44 pts 50% up · n 2 · normal +0.06 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | +0.23 pts 50% up · n 4 · normal -0.00 pts | -4.27 pts 33% up · n 3 · normal +0.02 pts | -8.69 pts 0% up · n 2 · normal -0.01 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | 0.00 pts 40% up · n 5 · normal 0.00 pts | +0.10 pts 100% up · n 3 · normal -0.20 pts | +2.35 pts 100% up · n 2 · normal -0.40 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2026-03-27 · true for 106 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 2025-10-24 · true for 61 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 2025-04-25 · true for 43 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +29.7%
- 2022-06-24 · true for 44 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.2%
- 1980-04-28 · true for 44 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +27.2%
- 5 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Few episodes: read the ranges and the interval, not just the median.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
More about economy
- What happens when real GDP is smaller than a year ago?
- What happens when real GDP grows more than 5% in a year?
- What happens when industrial production is lower than a year ago?
- What happens when retail sales are lower than a year ago?
- What happens when housing starts fall 30% in a year?
- What happens when consumer sentiment is below 60?
- What happens when the money supply (M2) shrinks over a year?
- What happens when the money supply (M2) grows more than 10% in a year?