What happened last time? › Economy
What happens when real GDP is smaller than a year ago?
It has happened 12 times since 1948. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 11 of 12 times, with a median move of +13.7%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +10.7%, up 75% of the time.
Real GDP below 0% a year. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +1.6% 67% up · n 12 · normal +1.1% | +13.7% 92% up · n 12 · normal +10.7% | +37.0% 100% up · n 12 · normal +28.8% |
| Gold | +1.7% 67% up · n 9 · normal 0.0% | +6.5% 56% up · n 9 · normal +2.9% | +0.3% 56% up · n 9 · normal +10.4% |
| Oil | 0.0% 44% up · n 9 · normal 0.0% | -1.0% 44% up · n 9 · normal 0.0% | +17.0% 56% up · n 9 · normal +8.9% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | +0.06 pts 64% up · n 11 · normal +0.01 pts | +0.28 pts 64% up · n 11 · normal +0.09 pts | +0.48 pts 55% up · n 11 · normal +0.06 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | -0.27 pts 17% up · n 12 · normal -0.00 pts | -1.59 pts 25% up · n 12 · normal -0.01 pts | -0.08 pts 42% up · n 12 · normal -0.01 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | +0.15 pts 67% up · n 12 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.15 pts 50% up · n 12 · normal -0.20 pts | -0.70 pts 42% up · n 12 · normal -0.40 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2020-07-30 · true for 188 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +35.4%
- 2009-01-30 · true for 126 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +30.0%
- 2001-10-31 · true for 121 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -16.4%
- 1991-04-30 · true for 443 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +9.8%
- 1982-04-30 · true for 254 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +41.2%
- 1980-07-29 · true for 190 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +5.5%
- 1974-07-29 · true for 317 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +9.0%
- 1971-01-28 · true for 64 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +9.4%
- 1961-05-01 · true for 62 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +0.8%
- 1958-04-30 · true for 187 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +32.6%
- 1954-04-30 · true for 189 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +34.3%
- 1949-07-29 · true for 216 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.6%
- 12 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
More about economy
- What happens when real GDP grows more than 5% in a year?
- What happens when industrial production is lower than a year ago?
- What happens when retail sales are lower than a year ago?
- What happens when housing starts fall 30% in a year?
- What happens when consumer sentiment is below 60?
- What happens when consumer sentiment is below 55?
- What happens when the money supply (M2) shrinks over a year?
- What happens when the money supply (M2) grows more than 10% in a year?